# Recession is bottoming



## poole_3 (Apr 1, 2009)

ChrWright said:


> Wow... another supercalifragilisticexpialidocious construction blog to "check out"... from a new expert with 10 posts or less.
> 
> That's not a cliche at all...


When did I say I was an expert? I do have a master's degree though. 

I have actually gotten some fantastic response from this forum so at least some think it's pretty cool. I encourage you to comment. 

John


----------



## ChrWright (Jul 17, 2007)

poole_3 said:


> When did I say I was an expert? I do have a master's degree though.
> 
> I have actually gotten some fantastic response from this forum so at least some think it's pretty cool. I encourage you to comment.
> 
> John


I was referring to the other guy...whose posts have disappeared...

But didn't you make a point in your other thread that a masters degree doesn't mean **** in construction? :whistling


----------



## kevjob (Aug 14, 2006)

hey where did the other guy go? :whistling


----------



## marlow (Mar 26, 2009)

well lets hope it can stabilize a bit but I have been hearing some major rumbles about commercial real estate specifically commercial mortgages.
Thats gonna be the other shoe to drop and lets hope they hold it back till things stabilize but you never know...we havent seen the bottom of this by far though. Its all about trying to keep the sludge to a trickle slow enough that we can eat **** and stay healthy.

We just spent the past 20 years sucking the baby boomer nest egg dry. Theres no more piggy banks to bust into. Its gonna be slower from here on out. 

Theres just no way we can detox off of that in a healthy manner unless its slowly over a long period of time.

Of course they could invent MORE [email protected]#m* "investment vehicles" then we are REALLLY in trouble. But I doubt that the global market would buy anymore at this point. Lets hope not cuz God knows wall street is gonna try!


----------



## Mike Finley (Apr 28, 2004)

Jobless claims just came out. 1st drop in jobless claims in 6 months. Unemployement still very high, situation still sucks, but it sucks just a little less for the first time.


----------



## boman47k (Oct 13, 2006)

marlow,


> Of course they could invent MORE [email protected]#m* "investment vehicles" then we are REALLLY in trouble


Such as bail bonds? Seem to be in the works now.


----------



## TigerFan (Apr 11, 2006)

Don't mean to rain on the parade, but the problems are far from over.

http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/2009/04/07/4-7-ca-foreclosures-about-to-soar/

That doesn't mean my business will be gone, but anyone who thinks this was just a larger-than-usual blip problem are mistaken.

$4 gas will be back by the end of the year. What does that do to your businesses?


----------



## Mike Finley (Apr 28, 2004)

TigerFan said:


> $4 gas will be back by the end of the year. What does that do to your businesses?


Same thing it will do to everybodies business that it did last year. Basically nothing. 

Sure I'd rather pay 10 cents a gallon, but we all adjusted, since it effected everybody it was a level playing field.

And damn it! I'm still seeing these fuel surcharges on a half dozen vendors invoices *today*!!!!!!!


----------



## boman47k (Oct 13, 2006)

boman47k said:


> marlow,
> 
> 
> Such as bail bonds? Seem to be in the works now.


I meant bailout bonds. I was reading a piece in the paper today mentioning someone is wanting to promote bail out bonds similiar to war bonds during the 1st world war to give the smaller investors a chance to take some gains on the recovery. This is supposedly because of so much anger toward the big guys.


----------



## jma_1000 (Apr 8, 2009)

rbsremodeling said:


> I doubt it has bottomed out we will see some movement from now till about July. Typical sunshine upswing but I do not think it will last.
> 
> I hate to piss on the parade. I hope I am wrong


I hope you're wrong too. But we should expect things to get a little worse by the end of this year, and 'hope' for some stronger gains in the first quarter of 2010.


----------



## ElementKitchen (Apr 10, 2009)

*No one told me it dropped!*

We have had steady work over the last year but our company is accustomed to an overload of remodeling work. And, with the easter holiday coming up (in a few days) we have no work for at least a week. I didnt get the memo the worst of the construction drop off is over!

If someone has a copy of it, please sent it to me!


----------



## CleaningMike (May 20, 2008)

Once a business is able to add some charges such as 'fuel surcharge' and 'excess baggage' do think they will ever disappear? Companies such as airlines have years of fuel reserves in order to prevent fluctuations like this from affecting their bottom lines but that didn't stop them from adding extra charges to our bills. For many companies it's just another opportunity to add a new revenue stream.

As for the economy, once people begin to understand once again that you can't get something for nothing and that money has to be backed up by hard goods, not just lofty ideals, we can follow a steady upward trend. Until then, were pretty much screwed, just patching up with band aids rather then treating the cause.


----------



## odcarp (Dec 2, 2008)

The residential housing market went down the tubes.Save your money ,The commercial property owners will start to default on their mortgages due to market decline. What happens when these big companies start to default let's see what happens then. The banks won't hold up against all the debt. Hold tight the ride is starting soon.


----------



## HazMat1969 (Apr 12, 2009)

ChrWright said:


> Wow... another supercalifragilisticexpialidocious construction blog to "check out"... from a new expert with 10 posts or less.
> 
> That's not a cliche at all...


Do you think it's wise to judge the wisdom of others based on how many posts they have on "Contractor Talk"?


----------



## Mike Finley (Apr 28, 2004)

CleaningMike said:


> Once a business is able to add some charges such as 'fuel surcharge' and 'excess baggage' do think they will ever disappear? Companies such as airlines have years of fuel reserves in order to prevent fluctuations like this from affecting their bottom lines but that didn't stop them from adding extra charges to our bills. For many companies it's just another opportunity to add a new revenue stream.
> 
> As for the economy, once people begin to understand once again that you can't get something for nothing and that money has to be backed up by hard goods, not just lofty ideals, we can follow a steady upward trend. Until then, were pretty much screwed, just patching up with band aids rather then treating the cause.


I don't know of any airlines that have "fuel reserves". By fuel reserves I assume you are saying they actually physically own years and years worth of jet fuel... stock piled where would this be? Huge fuel tanks buried in Magic Mountain at Disney world or some place?

Airlines do use fuel hedging strategies with fuel buying contracts which are just ways of locking in lower fuel prices in a rising market.

These worked great last year when an airline had fuel locked in at $75 a barrel and it ended up at $140 a barrel. Unfortunately it can be a double edged sword as in today when those same $75 a barrel contracts aren't worth much when oil is now down to $50 a barrel.

Southwest Airlines just announce a 2 billion dollar loss due to it's locked in fuel contracts now being worth less due to lower oil prices.


----------



## ChrWright (Jul 17, 2007)

HazMat1969 said:


> Do you think it's wise to judge the wisdom of others based on how many posts they have on "Contractor Talk"?


Construction business blogs are a dime a dozen. The new ones lately look to be put out by out of work contractors who seem to think that since they can't sign projects they should become consultants.

Yes, I'm skeptical of anyone who appears out of nowhere and expects instant credibility. Fortunately for all of us--most of them fail to read the TOS and don't last very long.

I have no problem with anyone who knows their stuff and has good information to contribute (and can defend their ideas without having a hot-dip-sh**-fit). 

The good ones last... the flakes don't.


----------



## wellbuilthome (Feb 5, 2008)

odcarp said:


> The residential housing market went down the tubes.Save your money ,The commercial property owners will start to default on their mortgages due to market decline. What happens when these big companies start to default let's see what happens then. The banks won't hold up against all the debt. Hold tight the ride is starting soon.


I hate to say it, but i agree .
We have never had a recession that took only 2 hard drops . There has only been 2 drops so far and the commercial property will be next . 
look out its going to get ugly . 
The truth is, no one has done any thing to fix the credit market.
With out credit the average HO cant add on to there home . I have been getting calls for small jobs 20k or less . I hate doing bath rooms and kitchens in the summer .


----------



## Mike Finley (Apr 28, 2004)

wellbuilthome said:


> I hate to say it, but i agree .
> We have never had a recession that took only 2 hard drops . There has only been 2 drops so far and the commercial property will be next .
> look out its going to get ugly .
> The truth is, no one has done any thing to fix the credit market.
> With out credit the average HO cant add on to there home . I have been getting calls for small jobs 20k or less . I hate doing bath rooms and kitchens in the summer .


Wells Fargo just did 900 Billion, that's Billion dollars worth of mortgages in the 1st quarter of 2009. Credit market sounds like it's working it's way out of it's problems. :thumbsup:


----------



## JustaFramer (Jan 21, 2005)

Mike Finley said:


> Wells Fargo just did 900 Billion, that's Billion dollars worth of mortgages in the 1st quarter of 2009. Credit market sounds like it's working it's way out of it's problems. :thumbsup:



More Mike "Voodoo Economics" Finley. 900 Billion in mortgages and most new construction has stopped. HMMM something stinks in Denmark. :whistling


----------



## vital151 (Jan 15, 2008)

Mike Finley said:


> Wells Fargo just did 900 Billion, that's Billion dollars worth of mortgages in the 1st quarter of 2009. Credit market sounds like it's working it's way out of it's problems. :thumbsup:


ye, the lenders are lending the bailout money, but that's going to run out in about 3-6 months or so. The truth is that unemployment is still rising and businesses are going out of business, the next wave is coming and it might be bigger than this one. 

www.JerseyRemodeling.com


----------



## rbsremodeling (Nov 12, 2007)

JustaFramer said:


> More Mike "Voodoo Economics" Finley. 900 Billion in mortgages and most new construction has stopped. HMMM something stinks in Denmark. :whistling


If you saw all the sold signs in my area you mind might change a bit. houses are staying on the market 30 days or less. Multiple contracts just like the good old days


----------



## JustaFramer (Jan 21, 2005)

rbsremodeling said:


> If you saw all the sold signs in my area you mind might change a bit. houses are staying on the market 30 days or less. Multiple contracts just like the good old days



High rises were going up in the "goog old days". Not now and the condos that are finishing aren't even selling.


----------



## kavi (Apr 15, 2009)

*reply*

I remember hearing this a long time ago and then I just heard it today. But now it means something if you are in business these days. There will always be business even in bad economic times, just the weak companies will not survive.


----------



## outlaw (Jan 7, 2009)

Here in VA, the builders that I work for are selling alot of houses. They have come down on price, but their prices were over-inflated anyway.

All I know is the new construction side of my business is way up over last year and the remod side of my business is holding strong.

Last summer I had four people in one month that were turned down for credit. This year everyone has been approved.:clap:


----------



## Mike Finley (Apr 28, 2004)

vital151 said:


> ye, the lenders are lending the bailout money, but that's going to run out in about 3-6 months or so. The truth is that unemployment is still rising and businesses are going out of business, the next wave is coming and it might be bigger than this one.
> 
> www.JerseyRemodeling.com


 
Some lenders are paying back the bail out money, not even using it.

Unemployement will continue to rise, this isn't the recovery, it's the bottom. But we need the bottom before the recovery can start.


----------



## boman47k (Oct 13, 2006)

outlaw said:


> Here in VA, the builders that I work for are selling alot of houses. They have come down on price, but their prices were over-inflated anyway.:clap:


I can believe that. In the past, I have read anything will sell if priced appropriately. Over the years I have been amazed at the prices of homes.

I know this is not the past, but I still believe that statement has a lot credence. Things could not keep going at the rate we were getting accustomed to.


----------



## wellbuilthome (Feb 5, 2008)

Mike Finley said:


> Wells Fargo just did 900 Billion, that's Billion dollars worth of mortgages in the 1st quarter of 2009. Credit market sounds like it's working it's way out of it's problems. :thumbsup:


I hear what your saying , but i just don't see it happening here , I have 28 open proposals with plans and attached contracts since Nov 20Th( My last signed contract) 3 people gave me a deposit and could not get financing . 2 other people wanted to do the work but found out the money was not available before they sign up . Ive lost 2 jobs this year that i had signed last July and august . I have one high end bath room to do and 4 total bath room rip & replace . (Owners have the cash on hand .) My problem is most people don't have equity in there house we lost 25% in value and the banks will only give 70% of the value of the home . I haven't even tried to advertise this year . I'm working on WOM now . I had some broke a-- guy wonder by the job to day looking for a 2 story addition , ill see him on saturday maybe he has some of the 900 billion . :thumbup: The economy or lack of , is starting to affect my personality. John


----------



## brushmasters (Apr 15, 2009)

When do people think that the recession will end for new construction, local builders (in what areas), remodeling, commercial building, etc. Are they all at the same time?


----------



## Mike Finley (Apr 28, 2004)

GMAC announced is hiring 1000 workers.



> NEW YORK, April 16 (Reuters) - GMAC LLC, the General Motors Corp (GM) financing affiliate that received a government bailout, said its mortgage unit is hiring 1,000 people to handle a surge in refinancings and jumbo loans.
> 
> 
> The average rate on a 30-year home loan this week is 4.82 percent, according to Freddie Mac FRE.P. That is just above the 4.78 percent rate two weeks ago, the lowest since the mortgage company started tracking it in 1971.
> ...


----------



## ChrWright (Jul 17, 2007)

More gloom and doom out of Harvard:

http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/media/lira/index.html

You'll note their indicator only covers improvements--and does not include maintenance and repairs.

I'd love to see data for how accurate this indicator has been in predicting future volume in remodeling.


----------



## JustaFramer (Jan 21, 2005)

Oh look the Bad voodoo is back. More banking troubles and the dow dropped 200 points. Oh that pesky bottom.


----------



## Mike Finley (Apr 28, 2004)

JustaFramer said:


> Oh look the Bad voodoo is back. More banking troubles and the dow dropped 200 points. Oh that pesky bottom.


So when the Dow goes up 300 points are you going to declare we are in a economic boom???? :laughing:


----------



## Jason Whipple (Dec 22, 2007)

Johnson & Johnson just went up about $1 over the last few weeks, thats all I know:clap:


----------



## JustaFramer (Jan 21, 2005)

Probably not. Lets wait and see how the financials play out. Guns check ammo check. Storable food and seed stock check. Survival gear check. 

Paper money is just paper. It grows on trees you know. :laughing:


----------



## DavidC (Feb 16, 2008)

Jason W said:


> Johnson & Johnson just went up about $1 over the last few weeks, thats all I know:clap:


That would be good news for you. :>)

Good Luck
Dave


----------



## Jason Whipple (Dec 22, 2007)

Yes Sir!:cheesygri


----------



## TigerFan (Apr 11, 2006)

odcarp said:


> the residential housing market went down the tubes.save your money ,the commercial property owners will start to default on their mortgages due to market decline. What happens when these big companies start to default let's see what happens then. The banks won't hold up against all the debt. Hold tight the ride is starting soon.


+1

.


----------



## TigerFan (Apr 11, 2006)

Mike Finley said:


> GMAC announced is hiring 1000 workers.


With all due respect, Mike, you are quoting mortgage refi's.

Even during the depression, 70% of the people had jobs / paid their mortgages.

These are not cash-out refi's for home improvements or other purchases. These are straight rate/term refi's that the stable, good credit folks are using to solidify their cash-flow positions. Money saved on a monthly note is going into savings for these people.

To think that 900 Billion at WAMU or 1000 new jobs at GMAC is indicative of a coming takeoff in new construction / remodels is to read the data wrong.

Entrenched people are further entrenching themselves... it's a prudent and defensive move.


----------



## Mike Finley (Apr 28, 2004)

TigerFan said:


> To think that 900 Billion at WAMU or 1000 new jobs at GMAC is indicative of a coming takeoff in new construction / remodels is to read the data wrong.


Maybe. I have no idea. 

But I know I never said anything in regard to new construction or remodels taking off, only that we are seeing good signs the worst is behind us and the recession is bottoming out. :thumbsup:

All I know is 1000 people getting hired instead of fired is good thing, and loans being made is a good thing.


----------



## Jason Whipple (Dec 22, 2007)

Loans are only being made to A++ people


----------

