# It's slowing down.



## Youngin' (Sep 16, 2012)

It's been a bit of a roller coaster ride this last 6 months. We had several custom homes lined up and we thought by spring time we would be up to our eyeballs in work. I'd be taking more of a management role and expanding my experience. It would have been long hours and challenging work which is great. 

The economy around here has slowed so much and one by one clients backed out citing the uncertainty around any sort of timely recovery. Instead of half a dozen homes we now have none signed to a contract. We have one getting priced out right now but until the clients sign the dotted line, anything can happen. I've seen a "sure thing" turn to "not happening" enough not to be too optimistic. 

We're turning over a home next week and for the first time in 14 years my boss doesn't have any work lined up afterword. He's laying off the only other employee soon and keeping me on. We have February to devote to doing service calls and tying up some deficiencies on previous projects but after that I'm not sure. In talking to the boss he mentioned possibly buying and flipping a house but that's only in the realm of possibility and not certain. He didn't seem certain to me anyway. 

I've got school scheduled for May and June but that's a ways away yet. 

The boss said he would at least give me notice if I had to go looking for another job but didn't want me to worry. Being honest though, I do worry. Been with this company since I was 18. The boss has always been great and a loyal employer but we haven't had a drought like this before. I don't want to leave but if comes to that I'll have find something else. 

I'll have to find my résumé file. I don't even think I have it on this hard drive, haven't needed one in years. I'll be keeping an eye on the classifieds. No sense in waiting till I'm out of work THEN trying to get my **** together. Best to be proactive just in case. 

Anyway, no particular question. Just want to throw it out there. Recessions suck.


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## FrankSmith (Feb 21, 2013)

Youngin' said:


> It's been a bit of a roller coaster ride this last 6 months. We had several custom homes lined up and we thought by spring time we would be up to our eyeballs in work. I'd be taking more of a management role and expanding my experience. It would have been long hours and challenging work which is great.
> 
> The economy around here has slowed so much and one by one clients backed out citing the uncertainty around any sort of timely recovery. Instead of half a dozen homes we now have none signed to a contract. We have one getting priced out right now but until the clients sign the dotted line, anything can happen. I've seen a "sure thing" turn to "not happening" enough not to be too optimistic.
> 
> ...


It will pass


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## PacificCanvas (Oct 29, 2016)

Hmm, Could it be that price is an issue? Because I am out here in California and we haven't slowed down at all. Granted I am in the business of tarps, awnings, and patios but when people have money for what I'm selling it is a sure sign things are going good. 

Are other companys having a hard time as well? Economy is and has been in recovery and especially the last 2-3 years it is picking up pretty good. 

Think it's just a dry phase on sales.....for you.


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## blacktop (Oct 28, 2012)

Same thing happened down here in 08.


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## Irishslave (Jun 20, 2010)

After the years of ups and downs, when I was young I thought this is great I'm making at least 3 times as much money as anybody I know. I pissed away so much....then at 40 the light bulb moment came I said to myself you know how this is so be smart you're not getting any younger. You're not gonna wanna frame everyday at 60. The hardest part was not spending any money. I stuck to my plan. I waited until house prices were at the peak...and sold. Took the money I made and what I saved and bought a house cash. Smartest move I ever made in my life....that's no BS....I now have no house payment...just taxes and insurance..that's enough. I pay for my vehicles cash....yeah they are used but so what...no payment just insurance. That's enough. 

Youngin, you aren't there yet but at some point later in life you'll just get tired of "chasing it" and what I've found is somebody else always ends up with most of it. Screw that. Think of yourself...because no one else gives a damn


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## Youngin' (Sep 16, 2012)

PacificCanvas said:


> Hmm, Could it be that price is an issue? Because I am out here in California and we haven't slowed down at all. Granted I am in the business of tarps, awnings, and patios but when people have money for what I'm selling it is a sure sign things are going good.
> 
> Are other companys having a hard time as well? Economy is and has been in recovery and especially the last 2-3 years it is picking up pretty good.
> 
> Think it's just a dry phase on sales.....for you.


We are in oil country. Many companies are slow and many of the high volume builders are sitting on unsold homes and not building much any more. Plumbing, HVAC, and electrical are being hit pretty hard. The electricians union recently slashed wages. I have a few friends in the trades that haven't found work in a couple months. It's certainly not just us. 

We do high end customs, some customers get hung up on the price, others worry that their own job won't be secure and withdraw their intent to build.


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## Tinstaafl (Jan 6, 2008)

Youngin' said:


> Been with this company since I was 18.


Just a thought... Could it be that the boss is slowing down a bit faster than the economy? Not meant to put him down in any way, but it does happen a decade or five into this sort of work.

But yeah, good idea to keep the resume polished regardless of how comfy you happen to be at the moment. Things do change.


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## Irishslave (Jun 20, 2010)

blacktop said:


> Same thing happened down here in 08.


Boy did it. It didn't affect me till '10...but when it did it was horrible. That was the year I bought my last and final house. That was the ONLY good thing that year. The prices were fire sale low too


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## Youngin' (Sep 16, 2012)

Irishslave said:


> After the years of ups and downs, when I was young I thought this is great I'm making at least 3 times as much money as anybody I know. I pissed away so much....then at 40 the light bulb moment came I said to myself you know how this is so be smart you're not getting any younger. You're not gonna wanna frame everyday at 60. The hardest part was not spending any money. I stuck to my plan. I waited until house prices were at the peak...and sold. Took the money I made and what I saved and bought a house cash. Smartest move I ever made in my life....that's no BS....I now have no house payment...just taxes and insurance..that's enough. I pay for my vehicles cash....yeah they are used but so what...no payment just insurance. That's enough.
> 
> Youngin, you aren't there yet but at some point later in life you'll just get tired of "chasing it" and what I've found is somebody else always ends up with most of it. Screw that. Think of yourself...because no one else gives a damn


I appreciate that Irish. Chasing the money is all I've doing the past few years. You know when I joined CT it was with the intention of learning and starting my own business. What I read actually made me step back and reevaluate what I was getting myself into. 

Right now, I'll be ok for a month. But like I said, I'm putting feelers out. If there's no work, there's no work and I gotta eat. So if it comes to it I say goodbye and find something, anything.


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## Youngin' (Sep 16, 2012)

Tinstaafl said:


> Just a thought... Could it be that the boss is slowing down a bit faster than the economy? Not meant to put him down in any way, but it does happen a decade or five into this sort of work.
> 
> But yeah, good idea to keep the resume polished regardless of how comfy you happen to be at the moment. Things do change.


Could be but he's strong on the marketing and business end. He's got a mind for it and so does his wife. It's just the uncertainty with how things are going on locally that gets me.


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## Stunt Carpenter (Dec 31, 2011)

Youngin' said:


> We are in oil country. Many companies are slow and many of the high volume builders are sitting on unsold homes and not building much any more. Plumbing, HVAC, and electrical are being hit pretty hard. The electricians union recently slashed wages. I have a few friends in the trades that haven't found work in a couple months. It's certainly not just us.
> 
> We do high end customs, some customers get hung up on the price, others worry that their own job won't be secure and withdraw their intent to build.




It's the whole province. The oil slow down is taking a affect down here also. To add to that January is always a slow month for my experience. 


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## Youngin' (Sep 16, 2012)

Stunt Carpenter said:


> It's the whole province. The oil slow down is taking a affect down here also. To add to that January is always a slow month for my experience.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


From what I understand Calgary and area have been hit harder than Edmonton. I hear about whole office towers vacant because of companies going under and others downsizing.


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## Irishslave (Jun 20, 2010)

Youngin' said:


> I appreciate that Irish. Chasing the money is all I've doing the past few years. You know when I joined CT it was with the intention of learning and starting my own business. What I read actually made me step back and reevaluate what I was getting myself into.
> 
> Right now, I'll be ok for a month. But like I said, I'm putting feelers out. If there's no work, there's no work and I gotta eat. So if it comes to it I say goodbye and find something, anything.


I'm just trying to help a young guy out if I can. I never had a son and my daughters don't listen for chit. A couple things I think are helpful to remember 

#1 Credit can make you or break you...use it wisely and only when you absolutely have to. 

#2 Diversify your skill set...it's always nice to have something else to default to when your main income stream gets screwed for whatever reason 

#3 Save every nickel you can...they always say 6 months worth of expenses should be held back....this is next to impossible for most. I've cruised for 3 or 4 with minimal or no work but remember my expenses are low....In the past I've had to borrow money...that sucks cause I gotta pay it back and you can't get ahead like that. 

Keep your head up and good luck


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## Calidecks (Nov 19, 2011)

Maybe low oil prices?


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## jlhaslip (Dec 31, 2009)

Low Oil prices and an extremely low perception of improvements in the Oil Patch.
I am in the same area and work for the last several years has been "spotty" at best.
Lots of Trades people looking around right now with not much to look at.
I have been doing mostly out of town projects and even they are few and far between, partly due to the season, but mostly due to the economic realities out there.
Home owners and investors don't see that things are going to be picking up any time soon.


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## JT Wood (Dec 17, 2007)

Californiadecks said:


> Maybe low oil prices?


We run on oil. Oil Prices are down, drilling is down, the machine is slowly grinding to a halt.


Our libtard Provincial Govt. is trying their hardest to tax us into oblivion, plus they hate oil. This scares off oil investment. (they go to the province next door. Their Gov't is truly awesome.) We also have a newly implemented BS tax, err I mean Carbon tax. 

I don't know how making my fuel more expensive could possible help the environment. But like I said, they are libtards. 

IMO it's gonna be a lean 2 more years. 

Barring a dramatic increase in oil prices


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## tman78 (Aug 13, 2016)

I'm not understanding this...


-Why are oil prices sinking in CA?
-Aren't Oil prices scheduled to increase?
-With Trump in office, i was reading that he's going FULL BORE for a CA., Oil production increase?


?


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## builditguy (Nov 10, 2013)

It may be slow right now, but it won't last. I've been there. Luckily it's been a while, but I can remember. 

Try to look at it as a positive. There are times we get so far behind, I think people stop calling. I'll go through several years where I've got more than I can handle. Then I'll go through a couple years that are lean. I think and I've heard people say, "I would call "Builderguy" but he is always busy.

Things will probably start to break loose before long. Winter time is tough for people to get in the midset of projects. I know the first warm day, my phone will start ringing. Happens every year.

It's actually kind of nice to reset once in a while.


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## BucketofSteam (Jun 16, 2013)

tman78 said:


> I'm not understanding this...
> 
> 
> -Why are oil prices sinking in CA?
> ...


Remember a year or two ago when the embargo on some middle eastern oil was lifted?

The Saudi's and such flooded the market with dirt cheap oil.

the companies who work up here can't compete with the price.


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## VinylHanger (Jul 14, 2011)

Maybe it is time to think about doing some part time gigs of your own. Small repairs, etc. Those things always need done, even in bad times.

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## Youngin' (Sep 16, 2012)

So I may be picking up work with one of our local ICF companies. I've stacked a few foundations with the Logix system so I have practical experience and I'm "certified" (Read: I sat in a room for 8 hours and listened to a lecture) so it'll be familiar territory. 

I'm also going to be handling finishing as a sub for a townhouse development. It's a familiar trade but done in an unfamiliar way. It's exciting.

The old boss does have plans being bid right now and could be ready to go by June. Whether I go back or not...we'll see.


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## Deckhead (Dec 9, 2010)

Good luck my man! Good on you for doing what you gotta do.


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## VinylHanger (Jul 14, 2011)

Change like that is good. That is how you find new opportunities. Good luck!!

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## Jaws (Dec 20, 2010)

Good luck hoss


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## mstrat (Jul 10, 2013)

I know I know, I'm late to the game and the subject keeps on moving on...but I'm simply agreeing with Irish...get yourself completely out of debt (including house & cars)...don't buy anything fun and live like a hermit if you have to. I'm getting closer and closer to it and simply put I cannot wait. I married into a saver and she actually broke me into saving until we had 6 months expenses in the bank...and now so that soon enough we'll be free and clear. Yep, bought this foreclosure we live in 3 years ago for $45k, put $7500 into it and have zero issues living in 850 ft2 since I'm not worried about money near as much. The young me had toys, lots of toys...and lost sleep worrying about how the payments were gonna be made every dang night. Now fewer toys (still have some fun, right?), but things just seem easier...and I'm to the point that I think about what the new tool is gonna make me before I even consider buying it. I guess age makes some of us cheaper...that or a wife?


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## Irishslave (Jun 20, 2010)

mstrat said:


> I know I know, I'm late to the game and the subject keeps on moving on...but I'm simply agreeing with Irish...get yourself completely out of debt (including house & cars)...don't buy anything fun and live like a hermit if you have to. I'm getting closer and closer to it and simply put I cannot wait. I married into a saver and she actually broke me into saving until we had 6 months expenses in the bank...and now so that soon enough we'll be free and clear. Yep, bought this foreclosure we live in 3 years ago for $45k, put $7500 into it and have zero issues living in 850 ft2 since I'm not worried about money near as much. The young me had toys, lots of toys...and lost sleep worrying about how the payments were gonna be made every dang night. Now fewer toys (still have some fun, right?), but things just seem easier...and I'm to the point that I think about what the new tool is gonna make me before I even consider buying it. I guess age makes some of us cheaper...that or a wife?


I just simply can't do it anymore and don't know how I did it before. Too damn stressful and life is too short. It's one thing to be broke when you have no work but clearly another when you're working your ass off and you're still broke. For what? To give it all to somebody else to make them rich? That just don't make sense. Win the game. Quit paying interest. Remember the gov is already gonna rob you till you're dead. Don't let everyone else do it too.


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## mstrat (Jul 10, 2013)

Irishslave said:


> I just simply can't do it anymore and don't know how I did it before. Too damn stressful and life is too short. It's one thing to be broke when you have no work but clearly another when you're working your ass off and you're still broke. For what? To give it all to somebody else to make them rich? That just don't make sense. Win the game. Quit paying interest. Remember the gov is already gonna rob you till you're dead. Don't let everyone else do it too.


Why does everyone else's posts always sound smarter than mine? :laughing:

It's true, that brand new truck is incredible right up until the next payment is due and you need to eat rice for the next 2 weeks...


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## Windycity (Oct 3, 2015)

Irishslave said:


> I just simply can't do it anymore and don't know how I did it before. Too damn stressful and life is too short. It's one thing to be broke when you have no work but clearly another when you're working your ass off and you're still broke. For what? To give it all to somebody else to make them rich? That just don't make sense. Win the game. Quit paying interest. Remember the gov is already gonna rob you till you're dead. Don't let everyone else do it too.




I have come to enjoy the feeling of not needing the paycheck when it comes...just sits in my pocket til i am good and ready to cash it...sometimes I wait to get two of them before i head to the bank


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## Metro M & L (Jun 3, 2009)

Gotta keep under 10k if you can.


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## Deckhead (Dec 9, 2010)

Had a big long post but really it can be summed up, if you pay cash for things by saving for them you can turn liabilities into assets.


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## Mordekyle (May 20, 2014)

Metro M & L said:


> Gotta keep under 10k if you can.




Why is that?


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## Jaws (Dec 20, 2010)

Deckhead said:


> Had a big long post but really it can be summed up, if you pay cash for things by saving for them you can turn liabilities into assets.


Other side of that - unless you have a bunch of inherited capital, how are you going to hit a home run with out a little risk? Use a rent house for example, say you pick up a foreclosure for 50k and put 40k in it, with and mortgage of 50k and it rents for 1150? Still cash flow 200 a month when it's rented after mortgage, taxes, insurance and 1800 a year maintenance account contribution. The renter pays for all this and you will own an asset in less than 15 years that yields a net of 9-10k a year for something you actually invested 40k into..... with the risk you carry the note while unrented and being repaired throughout that time. 

I believe in having reserves to cover your ass, and using credit when it makes sense like above. Always a risk, a black Swan could strike and all of them could be unrented for a long time or something weird and wipe me out. I could also get hit by a truck and die :laughing:

I'm willing to tolerate some risk to get ahead and setup up future profits for myself and family. I don't see how I could save enough money to have a reasonable retirement just rat holing cash. 

Definitely agree with keeping living expenses in check for your income and having savings though.


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## Irishslave (Jun 20, 2010)

For households with all four types of debt, that’s a combined average of $263,259. That translates into an average of $6,658 a year just in interest payments alone, which is especially tough when compared to the median household income of $75,591.

That means American households are spending 9% of their gross income just on interest payments alone.

Here is how that debt translates into financial stress: 14% of Americans have more debts than assets, which puts their net worth in negative territory. 

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/connecting-the-dots/the-stressed-out-tapped-out-american-consumer#


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## Irishslave (Jun 20, 2010)

Irishslave said:


> For households with all four types of debt, that’s a combined average of $263,259. That translates into an average of $6,658 a year just in interest payments alone, which is especially tough when compared to the median household income of $75,591.
> 
> That means American households are spending 9% of their gross income just on interest payments alone.
> 
> ...


I'm thinking it's probably worse than that


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## Irishslave (Jun 20, 2010)

Jaws said:


> Other side of that - unless you have a bunch of inherited capital, how are you going to hit a home run with out a little risk? Use a rent house for example, say you pick up a foreclosure for 50k and put 40k in it, with and mortgage of 50k and it rents for 1150? Still cash flow 200 a month when it's rented after mortgage, taxes, insurance and 1800 a year maintenance account contribution. The renter pays for all this and you will own an asset in less than 15 years that yields a net of 9-10k a year for something you actually invested 40k into..... with the risk you carry the note while unrented and being repaired throughout that time.
> 
> I believe in having reserves to cover your ass, and using credit when it makes sense like above. Always a risk, a black Swan could strike and all of them could be unrented for a long time or something weird and wipe me out. I could also get hit by a truck and die :laughing:
> 
> ...


Fine until renter tears the chit out of the place and absconds, then you're stuck with clean up, repairs, and mortgage payments till you get it rented again


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## Jaws (Dec 20, 2010)

Irishslave said:


> Fine until renter tears the chit out of the place and absconds, then you're stuck with clean up, repairs, and mortgage payments till you get it rented again


Yes, just part of the business model, I'm very used to it at this point. Just like a construction company it needs operating capital set aside that isn't your money. Definitely not for everyone.

My only point is risk usually has to be taken to make decent gains.


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## jlhaslip (Dec 31, 2009)

Jaws said:


> ...Use a rent house for example, say you pick up *a foreclosure for 50k *and put 40k in it, with and mortgage of 50k and it rents for 1150? ...


A city lot around these parts is over $100,000. Average House price is well over $300,000. CDN dollars, of course.


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## Jaws (Dec 20, 2010)

Irishslave said:


> I'm thinking it's probably worse than that


I would bet money that it is worse than that.


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## Jaws (Dec 20, 2010)

jlhaslip said:


> A city lot around these parts is over $100,000. Average House price is well over $300,000. CDN dollars, of course.


Right, different everywhere. A lot of double wides are 125k+ here, but I have found some deals on the county steps. 

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## Irishslave (Jun 20, 2010)

I'm going to say housing is way overvalued and in a bubble. This also drives rents into the stratosphere. Rental property used to be a good game as the margins were higher. If you own the property w/o mortgage the margins are better but by the time you get there in this economy how much have you laid out?


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## Deckhead (Dec 9, 2010)

Jaws said:


> Biggest this with the transplants is making sure they dont get into public offices (P&Z, Council, Commisioner or committees ect...). Dumb asses want to make it like the **** hole they left. Makes no sense you should just stay there :laughing:
> 
> County roads are a big one to transplants - or actually private dirt roads like the ones I live on. A lot of them (California and NJ being the moat prevalent) would GIVE them to the county to make them maintain them. :whistling
> 
> ...


Local and state politics for most places here is a death nail if you haven't lived here for at least a couple decades.

It's funny because the transplants don't really like to vote. I find that odd.


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## Jaws (Dec 20, 2010)

Deckhead said:


> Local and state politics for most places here is a death nail if you haven't lived here for at least a couple decades.
> 
> It's funny because the transplants don't really like to vote. I find that odd.


Count yourself lucky. I'd like to exnay them voting here :laughing:


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## Deckhead (Dec 9, 2010)

Jaws said:


> Count yourself lucky. I'd like to exnay them voting here :laughing:


A lot of ours live out on the islands in their own little world cut off by a body of water. What used to be a complete beach bum/fishing village area is now a complete yuppy uppityville. They have their own little things they all want to vote on and get overwhelmed by normal Floridians on the ballot.

We don't need new beach access, we don't care about who has what view, and we don't care that you want to be your own township. Our counties give them a lot but they pay A LOT to be there, basically like county committee sitting down to say, "K, how do we shut Long Boat Key up this year?"

And it happens. Now the upper middle class is moving out east because beach property is only for 1%ers. Well these jackasses are the ones who worry me, their need for self importance is dangerous and have just enough money to be assholes about it. They too will be gone when they realize, that except for the beaches, Florida is basically a glorified swamp:laughing:


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