# Housing slump getting worse



## wizendwizard (Nov 11, 2007)

oldfrt said:


> I just talked to a guy this morning that is relocating there.He was pleasantly surprised at the affordable living as he has recently retired.The low property taxes will be his biggest savings for his limited income.Not to mention the price of heating a home here.
> 
> 
> I think that the Northerners(yanks to youall) are a good part of the market there.


Great place to live, i admit it. 71 degrees here yesterday. 69 today. Tax wise some places are better than others. (heating cost? huh? whats that?)Do you know what area he is moving to? Pass my contact info on to him, maybe he'll need some work sometime.

We have 3 stages of YANK here!
Dang Yankee= 1 that comes to visit then goes home!
GD Yankee = 1 thats comes here stays a few years then goes away!
F'n Yankee = 1 that comes here and stays forever!
Joking guy's

How do you get a Yankee out of a tree in S.C. ? cut the rope!


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## Putty Truck (Oct 6, 2007)

eagleandbaby said:


> Putty,
> 
> Laws of economics won't go away just because you say they don't exist. Every business is subject to them no matter how long they have been in business. When the great depression hit I am sure experienced people who ran there business for years lost it.


The great depression? You can not compare the 2008 to 1929. It is a totally different world and circumstances. 




> You don't have to be a genius to know that if people can’t refinance a house they don't have money to remodel. If they perceive the one thing they feel a sense of financial security in is not stable they will not spend as much on things related to home improvement. This is basic and a fact backed up by history.


People are richer than you and do not need to refi to remodel. Believe me when I say that this last blip was a freak and now it is business as usual...this is how it has always been. 

Most people don't sit around all day watching CNN and posting on the interent. Most people work for a living and could care less what the "economy" is doing. 




> Maybe your business is more dependent on necessity and not wants.





> The housing downturn would be worse for people doing remodels instead of plumbers.


 uhhhhhh...Business 101, Step 1: Determine if your business fills a need. If yes, proceed. If no, there's always mom's basement.




> You are right though about the ones who operate it best will be the only ones left.


Business 101, Step 2: Be smarter than the average wet rock. Most simple businesses fail due to the stupidity of the owner. Construction isn't a simple business and so the fail rate is higher than the Mom & Pop Comic Book and Massage Boutique.

The construction newbies will see how aggressive the old timers are...what it takes to make a living in a real (I said, real) economy.


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## eagleandbaby (Oct 13, 2007)

I know this is not the great depression. I gave an extreme example of how the economy affects business. Although it is different time in history economic rules still apply and are universal. 

Common sense 101: If you are a plumber your skills are in demand no matter what state the economy is in. If you do remodeling your skills will be in demand mostly when the economy is doing well. 

I am speaking in general terms. There are exceptions. Some geographical areas of the economy will be as affected in deferent degrees. In general the economy is bad and businesses are affected. 

Mom’s basement has nothing to do with it except having some of her cookies and warm milk down there might make someone feel good.


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## rbsremodeling (Nov 12, 2007)

are those cookies "special cookies"


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## eagleandbaby (Oct 13, 2007)

rbsremodeling said:


> are those cookies "special cookies"


"Special cookies" for a "special boy.":innocent:


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## TileguyRy (May 1, 2007)

*housing slump*

I know alot of contractors in New Jersey are getting hit hard because of the slump. Friends went out of business. Cost of living getting higher. I'm really scraping for work now.


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## rbsremodeling (Nov 12, 2007)

Tile guy

I feel you and hate to know another contractor is doing bad or out of business. but when the going gets tough the tough gets going. In two weeks I started a handyman division. I don't want to loose my guys or have to lay anyone off so I changed gears to accomadate. You have to be quick on your toes and dig deep to survive if you were not prepared for the slow down. 

I have made over head and payoll off of 6 weeks of handy man stuff and had to work 20 more hours a week.. You got to dig deep if you want to survive. I got several large jobs in april or may until then I will do what I got to do to make it.


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## kevjob (Aug 14, 2006)

Tileguy, do you have a website? do adwords, CL, hopefully it will pickup for you. :thumbsup:


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## nywoodwizard (Sep 10, 2005)

I'm still optimistic. I've been getting lots of calls as of late ,but the question that remains is, will they have the money ? Lack of work is causing contractors to trim there prices, making the market cut throat and the Day laborers don't help matters either, driving the cost even lower.

The economy in mexico should be doing well , with all the cash being sent back.

I'm still getting by but man these folks are trying to get everything they can out of a dollar,things are probably going to get extremely competitive ,maybe a little too much.


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## oldfrt (Oct 10, 2007)

nywoodwizard said:


> I
> 
> The economy in mexico should be doing well , with all the cash being sent back.


 Maybe we should all build homes in Mexico to create a demand for housing there.A dollar goes a lot farther there.
Pay them their local wages.
Wait for more to return from the States to work in homeland 
Sell them the homes we built at a profit,
Skedaddle back to the US ourselves with some of their cash.
Then lock the F***ing gates behind us.


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## wizendwizard (Nov 11, 2007)

:clap:


oldfrt said:


> Maybe we should all build homes in Mexico to create a demand for housing there.A dollar goes a lot farther there.
> Pay them their local wages.
> Wait for more to return from the States to work in homeland
> Sell them the homes we built at a profit,
> ...


:clap::thumbup::clap::thumbup::clap::thumbup::clap:


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## JustaFramer (Jan 21, 2005)

Putty Truck said:


> Have most of you started your business in the last few years or what?
> 
> Listen, before the "boom", business was like this. Business is like this most of the time. It is what it is and if you are that insecure, I'm sure you can get your IT job back. :laughing:
> 
> ...



Yeah but all those IT jobs are now filled by people from India. The illegals of the tech sector though they are legal. My father in law is a Database Admin. in the last few years I heard him ***** about the low salaries that they work for. 
I told him now you know how I feel about illegals.

I agree with every thing you had to say. All the wannabe that didn't put in time in the trades and shat on all the real tradesmen. 



Their time has come. :laughing: I was here before them and will be there after them. So don't go spending all that money in one place. Oh snap you probably did. Something a ole timer said to me. "What a rookie mistake":w00t:


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## Tom M (Jan 3, 2007)

Anyone see "Wall street" on the History channel a week or 2 ago? The great depression came from the greatest boom in history. People were so confident in the upside of their investing they were borrowing money to invest it. Then all of the sudden, they needed to make good on the false money they borrowed and could not. The stocks crashed but the depression came from consumers not spending. They didnt have it to spend and People with money tend to invest more of it than the regular guy. They also tend to use that money for major changes in thier life like thier homes. You better believe these things go hand in hand. Its all eerily similar. I dont know who can fix it but this morning the news said stocks will start much lower again because offical reports of a recession looming and inflation likely to go with it. I hope someone can find a way out of this mess. Plumbing is necessity not a luxury like a 20k deck or 30k kitchen. There are also 40 carpenters for every mechanical tradesmen. I would rather be spreading rumors of how busy I am if thats all it took.


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## Vinny (Jul 21, 2007)

I wanted to add my 2 cents here after the e mail I got last night.

I was at my office late last night, and a friend of mine sent me an email about a property for sale in Stamford Ct.. He sent me the email because he knows its a long term goal for me to own a piece of property, as oppose to lease, for my buisness. The property must be industrial zone, which dwindals in availability daily in our area. The property in the add was no where large enough to support my operation but none the less, when my buddy heard about an industrial piece for sale, he immeidatly forwarded the email to me. 

The property was 7000sft with a 600 sft building on it that was built in 1935. Its in an area that can be used as a contractors yard. Now remember, its 7000sft total. Thats less than 1/4 acre and barely more than an 1/8th. The asking price? 1.1 mil. I had to F n laugh. 1.1mil. 

I couldnt believe it. You might be able to fit a small landscape, electrician, plumber, HVAC type contractor in there. If you didnt do anything to the property, just moved in, your monthly payment on commercial paper, assuming you can get a loan after you put 250k down, would be like 8 grand a month not including the 8 grand per year in property tax. 

I gotta ask, what small contarcting buisness has enough extra cash flow to deal with over 100k per year in costs for a property to call home. You would need to be like a $ 15 mil / year buisness and I assert a 15mil / year buisness couldnt operate out of a piece of land that small. And heres the thing. You may say, "well, lets build condos and take it to the highest level of use". OK, not a bad idea. I dont know the #s for that. But the end of town this land is on is a dump. You wouldnt want to live there. So anyone that would live there probably couldnt afford or get a mortgage. 

So I ask, whats the real value of such a property? Shouldnt that, or any property be priced/ valued by what it can return as a rental at a normal cap rate? I have always thought so but I guess I am way wrong. 

This is what 10 years of unfettered no control over the lowest interest rates have done to us. Frankly we need a 1990 style recession to cool things off, lower all land and houseing prices by 40% and wipe out some of the idiot A holes that have gotten into the trades and property speculation, thinking thier buisnes plan should be " buy all my tools and equipment on credit, and price my work lower than my competitor, and I make it big". 

One good year with no work and no revenue for some of these high flyers is what is needed though i know it would be painfull for many others that dont deserve such a wrath:furious:


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## Ahren (Nov 20, 2007)

Vinny said:


> Stamford Ct.
> 
> 1.1 mil. I had to F n laugh. 1.1mil.
> 
> ...


 
Dude, Stamford, and Fairfield County in general is the "Gold Coast". That's where all the NY big shots live, and the Merrit Pkwy. is their AutoBonn. Look in a different area. There will never be a good deal there.


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## LNG24 (Oct 30, 2005)

Vinny said:


> The property was 7000sft with a 600 sft building on it that was built in 1935. Its in an area that can be used as a contractors yard. Now remember, its 7000sft total. Thats less than 1/4 acre and barely more than an 1/8th. The asking price? 1.1 mil.
> 
> So I ask, whats the real value of such a property? Shouldnt that, or any property be priced/ valued by what it can return as a rental at a normal cap rate? I have always thought so but I guess I am way wrong.


I would almost bet that a Real Estate Agent listed the property. Why? For two reasons. 

You are asking about the Cap Rate (good for you for even knowing what that is:thumbup, but since you are asking, it was not in the listing and anyone who knows how to market Commercial Real Estate would have listed this as it is more important than the price.
If the property is not going to be marketed as to its cap rate, then you are marketing it on potential value. ie: Its a 1/4 acre industrial site now, but you market it as a potential 5 story office suite.
Since you don't know either, I would bet that a Realtor who sells houses is trying to sell commercial. FYI Its the same license, but two totally different games. Most Realtors do not know this and try to play them both the same way. Like Volleyball and Tennis. Both played in a court, both use a net, bot use a ball. What could be different?

So if you are serious about buying a commercial/industrial land for your business, consider this. 

 Go get yourself a good Commercial Agent through a referral. Simple talk to other business owners or property manager. Tell this person what you need and what you can afford. Then he/she will do all the leg work and only send you properties that work for you.
If you depend on walk in customers or need a storefront, consider a location that will accommodate both.
Look at areas where school taxes are low! Since you won't be sending your kids to school, no need to buy in a great school district with high taxes.


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## mseneker (Dec 22, 2007)

Wish the media would stop using mis-leading headlines like "The housing market is in it's worst slump since the great depression". Headlines are what get people to read the article. If the headline is BS then the facts in the article may be BS. Will spare everyone the lesson in what has changed in various financial controls and policy since the great depression. Which by the way, WW II helped end that one. 

It's a supply and demand issue and the "slump" varies as much as the supply and demand does between cities just several hundred miles apart.

The last time the stock market dropped a lot of investors took their money out and moved it to markets such as the home building industry. So there was a lot of money out there for mortgages. The lower interest rates that are sure to come along with new federal law passed two days ago may also help stop the foreclosure rates.

What about other indicators like the very low unemployment? How does that fit in to all the talk from those that fear a recession is ahead?

I'm glad the correction in new home-starts is here in my area. It needed to happen to get the supply down. A few builders and contractors that are gone now never needed to be in it to start with. And I'd rather have a correction now rather than during a true recession. Hats off to the Federal Reserve for their monetary policy! I just hope the correction in the housing market starts to end before the correction in the commercial market starts which is sure to come.

Now I seem to be getting more bids. I wonder if that is caused by less competition or just people out shopping around. I'm worried there will be a price war started by those that do not remember this is also winter time.

On a positive note, maybe we will continue to see short-term interest rates go down. Not that the people on fixed incomes will like that much. However, the interest rates to finance businesses or your next project will also be lower. People looking to take out home equity loans for remodels and additions may also, perhaps, consider this is the right time. I really don't want to think the correction in the housing market is anything but a correction. Looking around my city it appears people are doing very well and there is just a bunch to many houses out there to choose from. In terms of potential new home-owners. I've seen nothing but an increasing in graduating seniors from my local high school. 

Just my thoughts.


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## nywoodwizard (Sep 10, 2005)

*Jobs weak, unemployment soars*

Holiday spending has also decreased considerably. Canada has also reported lost jobs but there still at a 30 year low for there unemployment rate. 

I'd like to see all economic and tax incentives retracted for all US companies that moved across sea's. I'd also like to see a bill (for outstanding payment due) sent to all countries for us supporting there citizens who are here illegally. That should help put money back in to our economy.
This money probably in the billions, belongs in the US citizens pockets, not the entire worlds pockets.



http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/04/news/economy/jobs_december/index.htm


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## mseneker (Dec 22, 2007)

nywoodwizard said:


> Holiday spending has also decreased considerably. Canada has also reported lost jobs but there still at a 30 year low for there unemployment rate.
> 
> I'd like to see all economic and tax incentives retracted for all US companies that moved across sea's. I'd also like to see a bill (for outstanding payment due) sent to all countries for us supporting there citizens who are here illegally. That should help put money back in to our economy.
> This money probably in the billions, belongs in the US citizens pockets, not the entire worlds pockets.
> ...




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## wizendwizard (Nov 11, 2007)

nywoodwizard said:


> I'd like to see all economic and tax incentives retracted for all US companies that moved across sea's. I'd also like to see a bill (for outstanding payment due) sent to all countries for us supporting there citizens who are here illegally. That should help put money back in to our economy.
> This money probably in the billions, belongs in the US citizens pockets, not the entire worlds pockets.


The U.S. government gives MANY MANY countries $trillions$ of dollars every year in AID. This has been going on for MANY MANY years. None have paid back these "LOANS" or aid as it is called. This is why the U.S. economy sucks. Another thing, it's not Republican or Democrats that do this, ITS BOTH!!
STOP GIVING TO OTHERS AND GIVE SOME BACK TO US!


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