# housing market



## jshuatree (Feb 21, 2010)

talked to my old boss today sais the housing market ain't looking good again this coming year was just curious how u fellas think its gonna fair in your areas:sad:

also does anybody have any pics of other works that maybe they ain't posted yet?


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## brickstretcher (Dec 18, 2009)

I can tell u in the Chicago market its bad and the non union polish or eastern euros r just ruining the market. My bro was just told that some1 bid a job of ours 7 grand less. say no more


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## stacker (Jan 31, 2006)

it has stayed about the same in my area.i mean not many new houses are built around here even in good times.and ive never had any problem landing those houses.........until the past couple years.since the mexicans started coming up this way and laying houses for less than half of my price.
and the bad thing is they are getting the high dollar homes.this guy i have known all my life.we(my dad and i) bricked his grandparents homes,his parents homes.he builds a million dollar home and hire mexicans.i can understand part of his reasoning.i am a single brick layer with a single laborer.they can come in with a crew of 20-30 and pop it out.there is another mason in my town who works with just one laborer also and we have talked about combining forces to help combat the outsiders.


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## greg24k (May 19, 2007)

Depends on the area and the price range. Homes under $500k still move but slow, homes between 500-700k are pretty much at stand still. Above that, they move but slow, and not many will take a chance put up a 6-7k SF speck home.

The major slow down is because banks don't give out loan's, some got money from the Goverment and they sit on it, and now is the best time to purchase a HO for the first time buyers and anyone else, the interest rate is all time low.

I hope they wake up and get this economy on the roll, they killed everything in the first place, its the least they can do.


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## PrestigeR&D (Jan 6, 2010)

*Jobs,jobs,jobs*

until this slick lawyer from Chicago gets some morals and starts to concentrate on this country's economy- ie: JOBS,,, I can't see anything moving in a positive direction. Banks won't lend money out during hard economic times- not easy to get a loan - period. His idea of throwing money at the problem has backfired- which I expected it would. 
Banks could have been forced(temporarily) to lower- ALL the rates for ALL customers- Mandatory- House market stabilizes, people stay in their homes - greed is what caused this whole mess along with stupidity. 
NAFTA has to go, production will not go up if we keep sending everything over seas. The GDP has fallen, employers start eliminating positions, just one massive vicious cycle,,,,, .
Why would a homeowner pay for a $400,000,00 mortgage when the value is now $250,000,00 - they can't even sell it to save their souls. Drop the keys on the counter and walk away,,, would you stay??? Banks have to take the loss at that point and then they resell at CMV . Because of the carelessness of the banks and there lending practices the market has taken a huge blow. They could have avoided this by lowering all mortgage holders interest rates , ie; "we made a mistake" and are willing to work with you. Their answer instead -hold on to the greed. Why they got assistance form the government is beyond me. They are the ones that lent the money- if they fail- so be it- should have taken it's natural coarse, but no- throw money at the problem- where are we today???? 

Had the banks renegotiated the loans- for "everyone", no special favors for a select few- THAT, should have been what the government offered, not more money,It's like saying - you implemented really bad lending practices but we are going to reward you by bailing you out- what was the lesson learned?????, meanwhile people loosing there house , there Job, and the banks are showing profits- it's absolutely insane! Correctly, the banks should have been forced to renegotiate"ALL" their mortgages with "ALL" of there holders- regardless, The banks would take a loss in profits, justifiably so, but the homes will stay with mortgage holders and the values would not have dropped as much as they did, Now,,, threw money at the problem, banks grew profits and the fear and confidence wiping out an economy. It's sick I tell you, makes me sick to my stomach every time I think about what is going on. 

They want to help this economy- get rid of NAFTA- the most ridiculous piece of legislation ever drawn up, that was the death warrant for the American worker, get rid of it, stop the incessant rant on health care now and concentrate on jobs and getting our economy back and our people back at work and something we all can be proud of once again- American made- write here! My 2 cents:thumbsup:
Brian


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## solarguy (Feb 14, 2010)

stacker said:


> it has stayed about the same in my area.i mean not many new houses are built around here even in good times.and ive never had any problem landing those houses.........until the past couple years.since the mexicans started coming up this way and laying houses for less than half of my price.
> and the bad thing is they are getting the high dollar homes.this guy i have known all my life.we(my dad and i) bricked his grandparents homes,his parents homes.he builds a million dollar home and hire mexicans.i can understand part of his reasoning.i am a single brick layer with a single laborer.they can come in with a crew of 20-30 and pop it out.there is another mason in my town who works with just one laborer also and we have talked about combining forces to help combat the outsiders.


Amnesty workers with a few illegals hidden in the bunch. The foreman makes bank while taking advantage of the low wages paid the others. Everybody gets screwed except the foreman.


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## solarguy (Feb 14, 2010)

PrestigeR&D said:


> until this slick lawyer from Chicago gets some morals and starts to concentrate on this country's economy- ie: JOBS,,, I can't see anything moving in a positive direction. Banks won't lend money out during hard economic times- not easy to get a loan - period. His idea of throwing money at the problem has backfired- which I expected it would.
> Banks could have been forced(temporarily) to lower- ALL the rates for ALL customers- Mandatory- House market stabilizes, people stay in their homes - greed is what caused this whole mess along with stupidity.
> NAFTA has to go, production will not go up if we keep sending everything over seas. The GDP has fallen, employers start eliminating positions, just one massive vicious cycle,,,,, .
> Why would a homeowner pay for a $400,000,00 mortgage when the value is now $250,000,00 - they can't even sell it to save their soles. Drop the keys on the counter and walk away,,, would you stay??? Banks have to take the loss at that point and then they resell at CMV . Because of the carelessness of the banks and there lending practices the market has taken a huge blow. They could have avoided this by lowering all mortgage holders interest rates , ie; "we made a mistake" and are willing to work with you. Their answer instead -hold on to the greed. Why they got assistance form the government is beyond me. They are the ones that lent the money- if they fail- so be it- should have taken it's natural coarse, but no- throw money at the problem- where are we today????
> ...


If you are waiting on government to create work, good luck. They will give you enough tidbits to keep you at bay while they pick your pockets.


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## thom (Nov 3, 2006)

The real issue here is excess houses. At peak, we were building 2 million homes annually in a market with new household formation of 1.2 million annually. We have a lot of empty homes to fill up. 

Markets vary, but nationally, we had, at the beginning of the crash, almost 2 years worth of production sitting empty. Some places have as much as 8 years production sitting empty while other places have little. 

To make matters worse, that demand for 1.2million units a year was based on very easy credit. Now that credit has tightened up, the demand has dropped back to older levels, and the supply that was absorbed by the additional demand is now being made available again as people move back in with mom and dad. 

During those years of high supply, we imported thousands of workers to build. We have enough workers to build 2 million houses annually with a current demand of very little. Everyone is looking for work.

Many of the immigrants (many of the nationals also) are saying screw taxes, licensing, and sometimes even screw paying for materials and screw the customer. It's getting ugly. 

Government could help by enforcing licensing and tax laws but they don't want the bad press of arresting guys just trying to put food on the table for their family. That means the honest guys are really really screwed.


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## PrestigeR&D (Jan 6, 2010)

*Solar,*

Come on,,,, I do "not" want the government to create jobs,I want the government to stay out of it period, let our capitalist system work on it's own. It's all going to service oriented jobs- thats the direction. I want our economy to create jobs- just a little hard when they go overseas-ie; get that piece of crap legislation removed- NAFTA, thats what I want them to do-period! law of numbers , more going out than staying inside our boundaries.:thumbsup:
Brian


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## hardscrabble (Feb 19, 2010)

Even before NAFTA we were getting screwed by the Japanese. Their markets have always been closed. Their government backed up their electronics market flooded us with cheap products. The result we dont make a tv or radio to save our lives. North korea exports 700 to 900 thousand cars a year and allow only 7000 thousand cars in . If their citizens buy an American car they are audited by their IRS. Send a message and buy Made in the USA


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## solarguy (Feb 14, 2010)

The government has been involved too long to get it right now. I blame a lot on NAFTA. The thing is that it is a result of our capitalist system, not the other way around. Make money no matter who you screw and don't worry if it's bad for the country. When that fails, we turn to bailouts. Blackmail by the so called capitalists. If they can take your freedom, they're making money.


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## solarguy (Feb 14, 2010)

hardscrabble said:


> Even before NAFTA we were getting screwed by the Japanese. Their markets have always been closed. Their government backed up their electronics market flooded us with cheap products. The result we dont make a tv or radio to save our lives. North korea exports 700 to 900 thousand cars a year and allow only 7000 thousand cars in . If their citizens buy an American car they are audited by their IRS. Send a message and buy Made in the USA


They were simply doing good business. We allowed it. We screwed ourselves.


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## stacker (Jan 31, 2006)

hardscrabble said:


> Even before NAFTA we were getting screwed by the Japanese. Their markets have always been closed. Their government backed up their electronics market flooded us with cheap products. The result we dont make a tv or radio to save our lives. North korea exports 700 to 900 thousand cars a year and allow only 7000 thousand cars in . If their citizens buy an American car they are audited by their IRS. Send a message and buy Made in the USA


we(the usa)have long been allowing more imports than other countries allow us to export to them.
in the movie "Tucker",preston tucker,who started his own automobile company, says in the movie,if we dont watch out,we will be buying more from our enemies than ourselves.
we need not only buy Made in the USA,also buy local.use local talent,if you can.this holds mostly true in small towns like mine.my town is about 6000 people.but we offer plumbers,carpenters,masons,concrete men,electricians,landscapers.....but still many locals would rather bring in out of towners to do their work.and when they do,no money stays in our town.in many cases the out of town people bring their own material,bought in their town or city.which in turn hurts the local lumber yard.i know of three houses,and one business built in our area,where the only thing bought local was concrete.
in 1996 a new fast food place was built in town,by a man from out of town.he used an outside contractor,but told him he wanted to use as much local talent as possible.the concrete company used was local,as was plumbers,electricans,landscapers,brick mason,sheet rock and painters.his business continues to thrive.i will eat there before i eat at mcdonalds just because of the fact he used locals,and mcdonalds didnt.


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## solarguy (Feb 14, 2010)

That is how the stimulus is working out. If one has connections, they get the job. The connections are no longer local. When they go home, so does the money.


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## stuart45 (Oct 7, 2009)

stacker said:


> we have talked about combining forces to help combat the outsiders.


Remember the Alamo.


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## PrestigeR&D (Jan 6, 2010)

*The fleecing of America,*

Jobs go up for sale overseas-SOLD! we are not comparing apples to apples -wages,safety,benefits, and last but not least ,,,Quality. It's incredibly lopsided and we can not sustain economically with this kind of business mindset, pretty soon it the jobs are going to be mostly service oriented with hardly any production of goods,thats the direction currently . So where does that leave us- you can only charge so much for a hamburger, are we going to have to pay someone flipping burgers $20.00 an hr , because otherwise our society will not be able to sustain itself economically. 

we can NOT continue at this pace- NAFTA was supposed to be equal trading between countries- what a horrible bill,, someone already said it- "We screwed ourselves" . If the playing field was more even you would see jobs start to come back to our country, because they could not possibly be on the same field. Fact is most if not all countries over seas depend on us to buy there goods , If for some strange reason someone woke up in Washington and decided to think about the American worker for once I think that in turn would ruffle their feathers the wrong way- I think at that point china would put a call on all the money we have borrowed from them,, and to think - our government allowed this to happen- it makes me sick! what a bunch idiotic morons we have- they only care about getting re-elected-period, I say clean house- tho whole house- set term limits- absolutely- we need new blood , but most of all someone that is going to actually help America become a productive nation once again. sorry for the rant- i could go on and on, very sore subject with me, my BP is already up while I have been typing:furious::furious::furious::furious:
Brian


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## Rockmonster (Nov 15, 2007)

You know, Ralph Nader has been telling Americans for thirty years this was how it would play out....but he is, what, UNELECTABLE!!! Americans have fallen in love with a two party system that is beholden to their supporters...they own the field, the ball, the scorekeepers. We did this to ourselves....but it was a good run while it lasted, no?


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## lukachuki (Feb 11, 2005)

I can see this is going to turn into a political thread. Let me just say I saw the writing on the wall over a year ago and started getting ready for my next career. Couldn't be happier with that decision!


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## solarguy (Feb 14, 2010)

I took a solar class. Now I'm Solarguy!!! Still not working much. After reading the threads here, I'm thinking of taking EPA training. A couple hundred bucks and I can stand around and tell the painters to wipe their feet. Probably have to learn how to say it in Spanish. I don't see anybody rushing to take the certification class and it sounds like they only need one on any big job.
So far everybody's had to adjust their game. Why do we resist? Construction is gone. We were making some great money for awhile. Home prices were skyrocketing as mortgages got cheaper. Everybody paid good. That was then, this is now. Get out the first chance you get. We were replaced when they made the illegals legal.


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## denver 2 (Jan 1, 2009)

jshuatree,

Hang in there things will improve before long. I remember working in the early 80's with double digit interest rates when housing tanked but it came back. Our economy is cyclical and a year or two we will be busy. Have a little faith, the sky is not falling! We were due for a correction and it will hurt a little, but in the end we will come out stronger and better for it. I have no plans to leave the trade because it is part of my DNA and nothing else would scratch my itch. If you are looking for only a good paycheck then you might want to head back to school and rethink your future. By the way guys the glass is half full!


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## J F (Dec 3, 2005)

Yeah, but full of _what_?


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## denver 2 (Jan 1, 2009)

J F said:


> Yeah, but full of _what_?



Your a hoot! Your statement goes perfect with your photo by the way.


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## hardscrabble (Feb 19, 2010)

Some of you guys mentioned leaving the trades or already have. I was thinking about starting a thread on those lines. Since work and pay has really tanked here I was looking at maybe trucking for awhile to save up money. I checked out a truckers forum seems they are having a hard time of it too. Their mileage pay has been cut a lot of guys laid off. Newbies are payed even less. 
My other idea is to go back to school and go into the medical field, but right now I cant afford schooling. Maybe in a year or two I can. The community colleges are packed out here and they even cut back on the courses offered. Anybody else got any ideas. What would you go into if you switch careers?


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## solarguy (Feb 14, 2010)

Either politics or prostitution. Maybe both.


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## Rocha_Const (Feb 7, 2010)

Wow, this topic got really popular in one day.


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## stacker (Jan 31, 2006)

solarguy said:


> Either politics or prostitution. Maybe both.


either one your screwing someone:whistling


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## solarguy (Feb 14, 2010)

One's honorable.


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## lukachuki (Feb 11, 2005)

hardscrabble said:


> Some of you guys mentioned leaving the trades or already have. I was thinking about starting a thread on those lines. Since work and pay has really tanked here I was looking at maybe trucking for awhile to save up money. I checked out a truckers forum seems they are having a hard time of it too. Their mileage pay has been cut a lot of guys laid off. Newbies are payed even less.
> My other idea is to go back to school and go into the medical field, but right now I cant afford schooling. Maybe in a year or two I can. The community colleges are packed out here and they even cut back on the courses offered. Anybody else got any ideas. What would you go into if you switch careers?


I went to daytrading foreign currency. I love it. Wake up in the morning and think about only 1 thing. Do I buy or do I sell.

*But be aware that it is like learning a whole new language and you allow yourself a year+ before you even think of putting your own money in. Also if you are serious about it find a mentor, someone who has been consistently making money for a long time.*


Its the best business in the world.


1. no rent of offices (that is, NO dealing with Realtors, Lawyers, and government departments...man, what a pain in the pitudy). Also no office fit-out costs

2. no employees, 

3. No inventory or stock to buy. No shrinkage (theft of stock) and no "slow moving" items. No massive amount of funds tied up in inventory

4. You can "borrow" as much as you want (by increasing your leverage), WHENEVER you want. (Try running a big business and going to the bank for a short term loan for $10 mill...it will take a month minimum). 

5. If the business becomes a hassle for whatever reason, you can shut it down (that is, close all positions) instantly...and re-open (initiate new positions) whenever YOU want to re-open your "business."

6. You can "scale" your business to whatever size YOU want simply by increasing/decreasing your positions.

7. Absolutely minimal paperwork. Simply send your 12 month summary Profit and Loss Statement to your Financial Accountant for tax payment purposes.

8. You can trade from anywhere in the world.

Now having said that I am still submitting bids as they come in, but my enthusiasm is waning as I start to make money trading.


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## PrestigeR&D (Jan 6, 2010)

*Beware,,,*

Been there done that as a career- I worked for Mutual of NY and Metropolitan Life-CFP ,,when it's good it's good, but when it goes south-Hang on- your in for a very rough ride- and be careful:thumbsup: I couldn't take the stress anymore -. You have to stay in touch with the financials religiously or you may miss important changes that could affect your clients investments- try jugling 2800 clients - let alone - your own,,, 

Best business in the world,,,,,,,,,I must digress on that- NIMO 

how do you decide weather to buy or sell-throw a dart on a board of numbers- basically- that's what you are doing my freind-it's all based on gut feelings for the most part- it's gambling plain & Simple-otherwise we would all be doing it:thumbsup: 

by the way, that leveraged 10 mil- since you claim to know what your doing- what is that leveraged against?????????? guess what happens when you loose-:hang: 
Brian


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## lukachuki (Feb 11, 2005)

PrestigeR&D said:


> Been there done that as a career- I worked for Mutual of NY and Metropolitan Life-CFP ,,when it's good it's good, but when it goes south-Hang on- your in for a very rough ride- and be careful:thumbsup: I couldn't take the stress anymore -. You have to stay in touch with the financials religiously or you may miss important changes that could affect your clients investments- try jugling 2800 clients - let alone - your own,,,
> 
> Best business in the world,,,,,,,,,I must digress on that- NIMO
> 
> ...


First of all, i'm not going to turn this into a pissing match on trading. I fully understand that most people view it as a lost cause as most people wash up on the shores of despair so to speak.

I for one am finding it very relaxing. It's not a white collar corporate job, with me responsible for zillions of dollars of "other" people's money. It's just me and my little nest egg and my little schedule. 

Deciding when to buy and sell is the whole deal you have to learn of course! It's not all that difficult as there are only 2 options with the same cycles and patterns repeating endlessly. Foreign Currency trends like no other instrument and so if you can read a simple trend and patiently wait for the right time it ain't hard.

Last year if you would've gone long (hopefully on the dips) on the eur/usd anytime between march and the beginning of Dec. you would not of lost a trade assuming your account could take the drawdown. Just my 2 cents.

As to religiously staying up with the financials this is Currency trading and so fundamental news events are what you pay attention to...not really that hard. Everyday you just look to see when news is announced how important that news might be....let it do it's thing and then back to technical trading.

As to the leveraging question....money that is borrowed is against the usable margin of the account. As to losing yes of course, there are losing trades everyday, that is part of the game, but that is also why money management and controlling your risk are so impt etc etc.

Just my opinion...but the best little cottage industry in the world and my answer to the post by hardscrabble who asked what us tradesmen have moved on to career wise.


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## Tscarborough (Feb 25, 2006)

You could probably do as well at the unlimited table playing Texas Hold'em at Poker.com. Same difference.


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## lukachuki (Feb 11, 2005)

Tscarborough said:


> You could probably do as well at the unlimited table playing Texas Hold'em at Poker.com. Same difference.


By no means on both counts! Hey look I prob shouldn't of opened my mouth, as the preconceived ideas about day trading are endlessly negative.


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## Tscarborough (Feb 25, 2006)

True, the house takes a larger cut when playing the market. Not a slam, both are viable means of gambling.


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## PrestigeR&D (Jan 6, 2010)

*no,,,,*

Lukachuki,,,
Thats the problem with these cites- words get taken the wrong way- sorry If thats how you took it,or , maybe the way I worded my thoughts- usually me, so , my apologies to you,, been there ,, done that,,,no offense buddy,,I mean that. 

I hope you are very successful, but there are risks, just IMO don't put your eggs in one basket- diversified portfolios work best for a long term strategy- nest egg- Retirement money:thumbsup: that was my Carrier, and I did very well, but keeping that going when the bust hit in 2000 was the end for me. 

Are you really doing well, no BS- so whats your strategy,,,,seriously , I never gave foreign currency a thought - I heard the risk was to high at todays economic uncertainty ??? So what are you doing? I am all ears (glasses) I can't see with out them- reading anyways:laughing:
thank you'
Brian


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## lukachuki (Feb 11, 2005)

Tscarborough said:


> True, the house takes a larger cut when playing the market. Not a slam, both are viable means of gambling.


I have utmost respect for you Tscar so I'm just going to let it die. I have read and participated in the gambling conversations on other forums etc etc and they are not super profitable. Time will tell.

I suppose I have been fortunate to find someone who has mentored me and is continuing to teach me who himself is making what I consider insane amounts of money nearly everyday for the last 6+ years.


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## lukachuki (Feb 11, 2005)

PrestigeR&D said:


> Lukachuki,,,
> Thats the problem with these cites- words get taken the wrong way- sorry If thats how you took it,or , maybe the way I worded my thoughts- usually me, so , my apologies to you,, been there ,, done that,,,no offense buddy,,I mean that.
> 
> I hope you are very successful, but there are risks, just IMO don't put your eggs in one basket- diversified portfolios work best for a long term strategy- nest egg- Retirement money:thumbsup: that was my Carrier, and I did very well, but keeping that going when the bust hit in 2000 was the end for me.
> ...


Not offended in the least....sorry if I came across that way. Simple strategy.....Trade the trend and identify the easily identifiable support and resistance zones. Look for trades that have a more than 2:1+ reward/risk and never put more than 2% of your account at risk.

I trade the 5 and 15 minute charts and look for my overall trend on the 1hr being very aware of the daily.....thats it in a nutshell.


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## Tscarborough (Feb 25, 2006)

So long as you understand that it IS gambling, and study it enough to be good at it, then in the immortal words of Ammarillo Slim, "It ain't gambling if I know what I'm doing".


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## lukachuki (Feb 11, 2005)

Tscarborough said:


> So long as you understand that it IS gambling, and study it enough to be good at it, then in the immortal words of Ammarillo Slim, "It ain't gambling if I know what I'm doing".


I will begrudgingly concede the point that it is gambling in that there is risk, but very controllable risk. 

For discussions sake though let me ask.

What, in this day and age, is NOT gambling? Being self employed as I have been for the last 15 years is in some ways much riskier form of gambling as there are many many things which cannot be controlled. Working for the government, which used to be considered a safe and secure career choice, is risky and could be considered gambling. Just ask my mother in law who has worked for worked for the US government for for many many years and is now afraid she may be laid off 4 years before she could draw her retirement. There are thousands of people who live in my city who work for the Department of Energy at our local Nuclear facility, and many of them will be laid off in the next few years.

I'm not a wet blanket sort of guy, but everything it seems is a calculated risk and in some form or another a gamble. Just friendly discussion is all.


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## PrestigeR&D (Jan 6, 2010)

*So what are*

your profit margins based on initial investments, YTD, 
Thank you
Brian


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## Tscarborough (Feb 25, 2006)

Like I said, I have no problem with it, it is a viable means of employment. Everything is a gamble, but there are certain things that allow you to get upside very quickly. Poker and trading top the list.


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