# Buy Your OSB/Plywood FAST! PRICE TO DOUBLE?



## Spencer (Jul 6, 2005)

I should have posted this last week but didn't think about it until this morning.

As many of you know I am a mill guy by day at a lumber yard. We and our sister yard are scrambling to get as much OSB as fast as we can. There is a shortage and now with this hurricane we can hardly get enough OSB secured for the houses that we need to get built coming up. Its a bad deal. I just got everything bought I need for my big house project but I thought I'd pass it along.

As many of you know sheeting is a pretty screwed up business. They only keep warehouses so full and then when something happens that demand picks up it gets cleaned out like the snap of your fingers. Then it doesn't matter how bad you want it, for a while you can't get it because the mills that are shut down are not operating and it takes a while to get them going again.

Price of 7/16 osb is set to double, headed for $20 especially if this hurricane is as bad as they're thinking. Look for at least a dollar a weak increase for some time.

My yard won't even be selling it if you're not a regular contractor. It is going to get scarce. Get it while you can. Just a heads up......I wasn't even able to get all of the 3/4 I wanted......


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## Jaws (Dec 20, 2010)

Thanks


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## RobertCDF (Aug 18, 2005)

It's already $15 a sheet here... Debating about picking up 30 sheets (We don't need a bunch, mostly for stucco columns) You think it's going to get worse?


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## Sir Mixalot (Jan 6, 2008)

Thanks for the heads up Spencer. :thumbsup:


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## Chris Johnson (Apr 19, 2007)

$ 11.25/sht here right now


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## Spencer (Jul 6, 2005)

RobertCDF said:


> It's already $15 a sheet here... Debating about picking up 30 sheets (We don't need a bunch, mostly for stucco columns) You think it's going to get worse?


Yes. We are an operation that has 2 decent sized lumber yards and literally cannot get what we need to meet our obligations for what is already sold to get the houses done that our GC's have to build. 

This is just how it works. Everyone gets wind that supply is uber tight, every yard and bix box scrambles to get their obligations met and get inventory up before prices jump, this exasperates the problem, price has to catch up with demand........


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## aptpupil (Jun 12, 2010)

usually 7-8/sheet here, was 15/sheet this weekend.


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## PPRI (Oct 9, 2010)

I just called this morning because I heard it was on the jump. I was going to order 10 bunks of 7/16 and 6 bunks of 5/8. My supplier didn't think he would be able to get it. I think I'll just wait for production to pick up and prices to go down. OSB is a supply driven market. The mills do it on purpose. Problem is everyone is freaking out and now dimensional is on the rise as well.


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## Spencer (Jul 6, 2005)

Local Yard vs Big Box

3/4 OSB - 20.98 vs 16.67
1/2 OSB - 13.98 vs 11.31
7/16 OSB - 11.98 vs 10.49

Difference is big box can keep prices lower longer but they will catch up with the little guy or at least get close. We've still got a ways to go.


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## concretemasonry (Dec 1, 2006)

Plywood is a commodity just like oil and it can be shipped cheaply by water.

Unfortunately the U.S. inventory storage (producers, distributors and dealers) is not really adequate, so manufacturers export at low prices periodically since cutting prices will not result in a short term (6 months or so) to other areas. The U.S. and Canada both sell crude oil to China that has the cash and cheap and fasr water shipment. China does not have a large resource of lumber (except for the use in $50,000 violins made from quality Chinese spruce) and also is not a major oil producer, but has a huge oil demand because of the dynamic economic growth and the large demands of the auto industry that is the size of the U.S. and growing (that is why China does not export cars). The construction growth is also fast but it does not use too much timber and uses more concrete, brick and block per person than the U.S., but enough to require importing plywood from the U.S. or others, especially when there is not enough quick supply due to the U.S. inventory capacity's failure to absorb the excess production capacity at times. - The wood must be cut and processed and the plants run for economic and employee requirements, so it is sold where there is a ready and willing and able.

The good news is that some of the U.S. wood may return to the U.S after it is made into furniture and cabinets (not construction grade) on U.S. equipment in automated plants and not by school kids.

Wood for plywood is a long term asset that has to be processed in costly plants and then stored in inventory as long as there is enough storage capacity for inventory. - Even Walmart uses the super-efficient freighters (run by a crew of 13) that cuts of 4 days of delivery across the Pacific because they can turn products over quicker and avoid the high cost of money and inventory. This only applies to Pacific shipments because the super-efficient ships are too big for any canal or almost any bridge.


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## Eaglei (Aug 1, 2012)

Thanks Spencer, does this apply to plywood as well ?


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## Spencer (Jul 6, 2005)

Eaglei said:


> Thanks Spencer, does this apply to plywood as well ?


Yes, cdx plywood will also be in short supply.


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## Keeyter (Sep 18, 2010)

Spencer said:


> Yes, cdx plywood will also be in short supply.


Already is I got a quote today for 34.97 per for 23/32 and 26.80 for 19/32


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## Leo G (May 12, 2005)

I'm sure cabinet grade plywood's will rise in price "because they can"


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## PPRI (Oct 9, 2010)

Well I managed to find 8 bunks today. I got it for 12.39 for 7/16, 13.79 for 5/8 and I bought some subdeck too. I sure hope it continues to rise otherwise I'm gonna be stuck holding some expensive sheathing.


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## Spencer (Jul 6, 2005)

PPRI said:


> Well I managed to find 8 bunks today. I got it for 12.39 for 7/16, 13.79 for 5/8 and I bought some subdeck too. I sure hope it continues to rise otherwise I'm gonna be stuck holding some expensive sheathing.


I'm no expert but I would guess that in a few months price will come down as more mills come back into production. Hard telling though if we get any kind of natural disaster that gobbles it all up.


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## Chris Johnson (Apr 19, 2007)

Spencer said:


> I'm no expert but I would guess that in a few months price will come down as more mills come back into production. Hard telling though if we get any kind of natural disaster that gobbles it all up.


It usually does, lumber is treated as a commodity which it should not be, but is.

I hope everyone is putting escalation clauses in there contracts.


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## PPRI (Oct 9, 2010)

Oh I'm fully aware that it will come down. However, I'm banking that it won't come down before I need to use what I bought. I need this load by the first of November and I don't think it has peaked yet.


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## Spencer (Jul 6, 2005)

PPRI said:


> Oh I'm fully aware that it will come down. However, I'm banking that it won't come down before I need to use what I bought. I need this load by the first of November and I don't think it has peaked yet.


I agree. The feel that I get is that the squeeze is just starting. Here at the yard we have houses quoted with osb at a lower price so we are scrambling to get everything we can at the lowest price possible. This only makes it worse but that is the nature of the beast.

I'm sure you'll get it used in time.


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## Chris Johnson (Apr 19, 2007)

Every delivery of concrete has a fuel surcharge, let's invent the lumber surcharge!!


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