# Vehicle market crash ahead.



## DenverCountryBoy (Jan 10, 2021)

Tom M said:


> Starting feel like 08


I was thinking 2006


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## sunkist (Apr 27, 2012)

The RV market has already took a dive Lots of used RVs for sale way overpriced as people overpaid for tem and can't accept it's going to be their loss


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## SamM (Dec 13, 2009)

Tom M said:


> Starting feel like 08


My understanding is that when the housing scheme fell apart, they basically started doing the same thing with car loans.

I know it's been almost impossible to be denied an auto loan in Canada for a while.

The 7 year loans on new cars is beyond stupid. I sold cars for a little while and basically everyone was underwater with their cars because of it. The few people I saw with 4-5 year loans had equity in the vehicle on trade in at least. 

Edit: posted before finishing comment 😅


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## Tom M (Jan 3, 2007)

For those that avoid the political section of the forum it's been discussed that it's the intention of some to create a dependency on government through by depleting the middle class and elevating the lower not just in the USA but globally so the upper class feels it's equitable.

Agree or not there's more visible indicators that there are two standards and that they don't look to help those helping themselves but discourage it. Providing more help at the bottom is fine if it didn't hurt the middle. There is still more indication that policies are helping the powerful more than helping the middle. The ruling class certainly doesn't feel they work for you or have to answer to you.

If rejected they spring into a ton of intimadation


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

This guy, Lucky Lopez, is just being discovered by the media. This vid happens to be 2 months old, but right on the money. Good comment thread, too.


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## Tom M (Jan 3, 2007)

And who said credit was racist. Everyone is ***** rich playa....by design intentional like housing


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## rrk (Apr 22, 2012)

And when you have to get the $65k EV with an 8 or 10 year loan that should be a blast


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## Tom M (Jan 3, 2007)

Imagine how many more will not be able to pay back the rents they were more than willing not to pay like student debt. A lot of landlords will reject the credit reports. 

Here comes big brother to the rescue.


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## Tom M (Jan 3, 2007)

rrk said:


> The housing market will be right behind


The cover of today's Bergen Record is about giving a leg up to foreclosures to non profit.








New Jersey Bill Would Ease the Path to Homeownership for Low-Income Families


A bill passed by the New Jersey state legislature would discourage investors from buying and flipping homes while giving households that have experienced foreclosure first bidding rights on auction properties.




www.planetizen.com





Those non profits are HUD black rock and Chinese companies using an encourage crisis to take over.


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## Half-fast Eddie (Aug 21, 2020)

MarkJames said:


> Late payments are rising in all states, and DC tops the list where 24% of car loan payments are now late.


Not surprising, if you have even been to DC. The tourist areas are nice, and NW and SW has some very nice areas. Georgetown etc. But go over to SE and NE and the poverty level is astounding.


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## Deckhead (Dec 9, 2010)

Is it bad that I feel vindicated in always preparing for a massive downturn? I watched all my friends buy at stupid levels these past 5 years and I kept saying, buttress yourself against a big downturn and its coming. While they were balling out of control I was busy arguing with the wife we didn't need a more expensive couch just cause we could.

As I was working on small, strongly back clients for less money they were out there getting bigger and bigger. Wife drives a 90k escalade and a new f350 with all the bells and whistles. We buy a new vehicle for more than half that and I trade a truck for one straight up because it's more basic with less miles.

If you haven't been preparing for this you haven't been paying attention. This is going to be '08 with a bubble beneath it that's going to burst too. The rich get made when no one else can spend money, not while everyone spends money. This one ain't gonna be good.

That said, after all the doom and gloom, those of us who come out on the other side - we should be sitting pretty. We'll come back but it might be a while. Own everything, try to carry as little debt as possible, and you'll be in a good spot when you can set demand...


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## Jaws (Dec 20, 2010)

Yep, cars, equipment, campers all about to come down. 

I've heard smart people say housing crash won't be like 08 for a number of reasons that made sense, and smart people say it's going to be worse 

We deserve everything we are about to get as a nation, that's for sure.


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## Deckhead (Dec 9, 2010)

Jaws said:


> Yep, cars, equipment, campers all about to come down.
> 
> I've heard smart people say housing crash won't be like 08 for a number of reasons that made sense, and smart people say it's going to be worse
> 
> We deserve everything we are about to get as a nation, that's for sure.


It's insane here. It dwarfs what was going on in '07-'08 and Dad said that was worse then late 70's here. I'm not saying this for bragging purposes but to drive the point home. My wife and I make a VERY good living as a couple. My mom is always amazed when I tell her what I charge and has an idea of Rach's income. That being said, I couldn't afford my own house right now and were doing well.

I had one soccer mom tell me she's paying installments on the soccer season which is about 2500 if you pay upfront for tourneys/uni's/hotels and 3k if you pay in installments. They have a 6k sq ft house, drive the nicest of cars, and can't come up with 2500 bucks for your kid to play soccer? That's crazy.

This one is going to be bad because it's the upper middle class that are going to get nailed to the wall. It's not gonna be pretty. Can't imagine what's going to happen to boats...


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

rrk said:


> Didn’t you hear if you can’t afford $10 gas and an overpriced car you are doing something wrong



Yeah, I heard.
Lots of people lying "misspeaking" too.


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

Deckhead said:


> I'm not saying this for bragging purposes but to drive the point home.


What point are you driving home?


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## NYCB (Sep 20, 2010)

I bet it's not just vehicles, people seem to be late paying lately, so you can only imagine how their other debt is doing.

My goal for the end of this year is to be business debt free, and then I can evaluate the viability of taking more loans for equipment as we see the workload for next year start.

If work is slow, at least I won't owe anything and won't have to worry about losing the stuff that makes us money. If the competition can't service their debt, they will be forced to either downsize or go out of business.

It's not enough that I succeed, others must fail.


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## rrk (Apr 22, 2012)

Transitory inflation is taking its toll on many families


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## NYCB (Sep 20, 2010)

Deckhead said:


> It's insane here. It dwarfs what was going on in '07-'08 and Dad said that was worse then late 70's here. I'm not saying this for bragging purposes but to drive the point home. My wife and I make a VERY good living as a couple. My mom is always amazed when I tell her what I charge and has an idea of Rach's income. That being said, I couldn't afford my own house right now and were doing well.
> 
> I had one soccer mom tell me she's paying installments on the soccer season which is about 2500 if you pay upfront for tourneys/uni's/hotels and 3k if you pay in installments. They have a 6k sq ft house, drive the nicest of cars, and can't come up with 2500 bucks for your kid to play soccer? That's crazy.
> 
> This one is going to be bad because it's the upper middle class that are going to get nailed to the wall. It's not gonna be pretty. Can't imagine what's going to happen to boats...


For a long time I thought my wife and I were behind, it seemed like everyone had a nice vehicle, lots of toys, took trips.

Only later did I start to get little trickles of information and conversation that let me know just how in debt people are. Running up 10-20 grand in debt for Christmas and a trip and then taking the whole year to pay it off with high interest is bonkers to me.

The only debt I've taken on for years is business debt, and it's always to help with growth (our house being the exception). It always services itself, then continues to make money after it's paid for.

At 36 I bought my first ever new vehicle. Delayed gratification seems to pay off in the long run, but a lot of people are very bad at.


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## hdavis (Feb 14, 2012)

Back when collection agencies were local, one guy told me you'd be surprised at how the apparently well to do are behind on everything.

At the same time, there were people that owned over 40 houses free and clear, and looked destitute.

You can't tell how much money someone has, just what they've spent.


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## hdavis (Feb 14, 2012)

Back in the late 80s around Philly / main line, Rolls, Bentleys, and jaguars hit the market cheap. All if a sudden, those rich people needed cash.


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

hdavis said:


> Back when collection agencies were local, one guy told me you'd be surprised at how the apparently well to do are behind on everything.
> 
> At the same time, there were people that owned over 59 houses free and clear, and looked destitute.
> 
> You can't tell how much money someone has, just what they've spent.



I've noticed through the years, the ones who keep telling you how well they are doing....ain't.


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

Half-fast Ed
[QUOTE="rrk said:


> Transitory inflation is taking its toll on many families


That was the right call at the time, and it almost happened. But a couple unforeseen "externalities" happened and derailed world supply chains and other stuff.


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

China just closed down Wuhan again.


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

MarkJames said:


> China just closed down Wuhan again.


China knows exactly what they are doing.
Unfortunately, I can't say the same about the current leadership in the U.S.


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## Calidecks (Nov 19, 2011)

Robie said:


> I've noticed through the years, the ones who keep telling you how well they are doing....ain't.


Yup 


Mike.
*___*


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

MarkJames said:


> That was the right call at the time, and it almost happened. But a couple unforeseen "externalities" happened and derailed world supply chains and other stuff.


She made that statement quite a while after the supply chain debacles happened.....


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

Robie said:


> She made that statement quite a while after the supply chain debacles happened.....


The supply chain issues were expected to be more transient, too.


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## NYCB (Sep 20, 2010)

Robie said:


> I've noticed through the years, the ones who keep telling you how well they are doing....ain't.


Everybody seems to think I'm a damn millionare. Yeah we just completed a $20k job in like 3 days.....but it's not like I got to keep all of that, or even half of it.

"Look at all those tools you just bought, you're doing fine".

Sure, I just put 5 grand worth of tools on credit, for a job that won't pay for 90 days.....awesome.


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## DenverCountryBoy (Jan 10, 2021)

MarkJames said:


> That was the right call at the time, and it almost happened. But a couple unforeseen "externalities" happened and derailed world supply chains and other stuff.


Tripling the monetary supply is never transient.


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## DenverCountryBoy (Jan 10, 2021)

Unless you are comparing it to the transient Weimar Republic.


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## hdavis (Feb 14, 2012)

Robie said:


> I've noticed through the years, the ones who keep telling you how well they are doing....ain't.


I grew up around lobstermen and fishermen. If you asked them how it was going, they'd all tell you it's the worst year they've ever seen. Every one of them. Every year.


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## hdavis (Feb 14, 2012)

MarkJames said:


> The supply chain issues were expected to be more transient, too.


That was some dumb thinking, unless by transient you mean a few years. The people who said that had to know better.


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

hdavis said:


> I grew up around lobstermen and fishermen. If you asked them how it was going, they'd all tell you it's the worst year they've ever seen. Every one of them. Every year.


Reminds me of the saying "Where? You can't get there from here."


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## Jaws (Dec 20, 2010)

hdavis said:


> I grew up around lobstermen and fishermen. If you asked them how it was going, they'd all tell you it's the worst year they've ever seen. Every one of them. Every year.



Old contractors around here were that way too

I'm an open book, I tell people when it's going good and when it's going bad. Ego doesn't get in my way to day I ****ed up or I lost money on this deal or I should of done this better. Last year was the worst year we've ever had, especially on paper, and I was open about that. I can't stand people who beat their chests when they win and act like a beat puppy when they lose.


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

MarkJames said:


> Reminds me of the saying "Where? You can't get there from here."


Excuse me. How do I get to Farmington?

Don't move a damn inch.


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## Tom M (Jan 3, 2007)

We are under attack and it's not a joke. We are literally hoping some people come to their senses before it's to late.


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

hdavis said:


> That was some dumb thinking, unless by transient you mean a few years. The people who said that had to know better.


Well, one would think.
But.....here we are.


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

They were pretty clear about why they thought that. They expected the bottlenecks to resolve more quickly. Instead, other things happened, including more lockdowns in key places after it seemed to be behind us.

One of biggest complainers has been Mohammed El Erian. Very smart guy, but he was bitter by his own (wrong) call that the market would continue to tank when it instead rebounded last year. So then he finally got lucky and justified when the second wave of [email protected] came around. Now he beats Powell over the head with his "bad call" on inflation every chance he gets. Hey Mo, you still missed the first market rebound.


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## Jaws (Dec 20, 2010)

I knew a builder, I grew up he was one of the big builders, nice house, nice cars for his wife, new truck every year, owned lots and buildings, nice office. I wouldn't say I looked up to him but I defintely took notice of his situation and wanted to build something similar. 

In 2010 he bought a new King Ranch, less than 10 weeks before he filed chapter 11, the month before that he was still saying he was busy as hell. Truck got taken back, lost his lots, office and some rent property. His wife got the house in 2012 when she left him. 

I could of respected any of that, if the dude could just say man I'm slow af, I sold my truck and bought a cheaper truck, and I am renting my office if anyone knows of anyone looking. Hey brother if you know of anyone needing something built, repaired or remodeled I'm their man, and I'd truly appreciate the referral and I'll remember it. I used to litterally go to all my vendors in person and say JUST that, I'm hungry and I need a project. I did it as recent as 2017 of anyone remners the "STREAK" where I lost 14 in a row. 😆 

But I said man why did you buy the truck?? He said you have to look successful to be successful. Which is BS. You need to have integrity, some humility, be competent as hell and trustworthy and you need to take care of people when your flush and when your not, be honest, ask for the business! Don't buy a new truck when your drowning! 😆 You'd see me bragging about how much I got for my truck and how cheap I bought the one I traded down to! 

Dude didn't build anything for several years, him and several others, can't be a home builder without credit. I domt think I'll ever forget how defeated that dude looked after that chapter 11 - and to me it wasn't the failure it was the disingenuous way it was handled. That and - while he should of been in fight camp mode training to taste blood and cut all excess, softness and comfort from his life and phsyce and fight tooth and nail for every half inch he was entertaining and lying to himself and those around him while the Titanic was sinking. My granddad used to say this game ain't for pussies, and that 100% is bot proven when times are fat, but tight


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## hdavis (Feb 14, 2012)

You don't have to be fancy, but neat, clean, and organized goes a long way.


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

MarkJames said:


> It's politics 101. There's always some version of it.
> 
> Note that I am not disagreeing with you too much. Just explaining. And based on all this, I'm getting kinda hopeful already. 2% of the GDP decline is supply-chain related, which will subside one of these days.


What are they replacing Pete?


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

Robie said:


> What are they replacing Pete?


I don't get the reference.


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

MarkJames said:


> I don't get the reference.


Supply chain...transportation....
You don't think that kinda falls under him?


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

Robie said:


> Supply chain...transportation....
> You don't think that kinda falls under him?


Ok, pin it on him. 

The port issues were due to the private system we have/had. But now there will be more coordinated oversight.


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## Calidecks (Nov 19, 2011)

So locking down and driving unemployment way up then when they go back to work it's called job creation. 

Just like gas prices. Government policies cause sky high gas prices then when it goes down a few cents they are to be applauded because they brought prices down?


Mike.
*___*


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

MarkJames said:


> Ok, pin it on him.
> 
> The port issues were due to the private system we have/had. But now there will be more coordinated oversight.


I do pin a huge portion on him.
I looked a while ago to see if I could find any meetings he had with anyone in the ports, both here and overseas. Nada.
I looked to see what meetings he had with truckers.
Nada.
Edit: I stand corrected...2021 Savannah. he talked in length about the infrastructure bill.


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

Gas prices are mainly the result of the market, not government policies. We went from a moment of negatively-priced oil to current, where they (XOM and the rest) are bound not to repeat it...plus the war and timing the reopening and normalizing supply chains that involve countries other than ours. 

On employment numbers, hard to disagree. That's politics.

Full disclosure. I own and am a fan of XOM.


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

MarkJames said:


> Gas prices are mainly the result of the market, not government policies.


Baloney.


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

Robie said:


> Baloney.


"True fact."


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

MarkJames said:


> "True fact."


"No joke"


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

Follow more analysts and less policy/political spinsters and things become clear..without the emotional hyperbole. That's not saying we can't have differences on policy. But the players are doing what they are doing to max profit. Period.


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## Jaws (Dec 20, 2010)

MarkJames said:


> "True fact."



Bro you are so lost. Do you comprehend supply and demand and how regulation affects that?

So in Mark's mind these in NO WAY affected fuel prices - 

1) canceling and limiting domestic drilling 

2) proposing choking regulations 

3) anti energy rhetoric focused on ending drilling 

Or - he COULD be a leader and deal maker, and open up drilling tomorrow, initiate a new policy focused on America First and domestic drilling in immediate affect (maybe in back room trade for a 1.50 $ drop in fuel over next 12 weeks) 

I'd throw in a fourth and say if he wasn't a little ***** from Scranton there wouldn't be a war in Ukraine right now, which is certainly affecting fuel prices


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

Jaws said:


> Bro you are so lost. Do you comprehend supply and demand and how regulation affects that?
> 
> So in Mark's mind these in NO WAY affected fuel prices -
> 
> ...


Correct me if I'm wrong. I still vaguely recall you defending higher oil prices (during another adminstration) because it supports your economy down there. Maybe Robie can dig that one up.


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

MarkJames said:


> Follow more analysts and less policy/political spinsters and things become clear..without the emotional hyperbole. That's not saying we can't have differences on policy. But the players are doing what they are doing to max profit. Period.


I don't need much more than this to be honest.
You are going to sit there and try to convince me that if he hadn't touched one single Trump policy...didn't do anything regarding fossil fuels...didn't get us into a proxy war with ukraine...gas prices would be the same as they are today?


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

MarkJames said:


> Maybe Robie can dig that one up.


Robie probably can, with a few more specifics.


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## DenverCountryBoy (Jan 10, 2021)

MarkJames said:


> Gas prices are mainly the result of the market, not government policies. We went from a moment of negatively-priced oil to current, where they (XOM and the rest) are bound not to repeat it...plus the war and timing the reopening and normalizing supply chains that involve countries other than ours.
> 
> On employment numbers, hard to disagree. That's politics.
> 
> Full disclosure. I own and am a fan of XOM.


Rescinding the license for the refinery expansion in the US Virgin Islands didn't help.


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

Robie said:


> Robie probably can, with a few more specifics.


I wish I had some. I even figured you would remember such a thing.


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

MarkJames said:


> I wish I had some. I even figured you would remember such a thing.


To be honest, no.
I tend to pay more attention to outlandish comments, exagerations and lies.


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

Robie said:


> I don't need much more than this to be honest.
> You are going to sit there and try to convince me that if he hadn't touched one single Trump policy...didn't do anything regarding fossil fuels...didn't get us into a proxy war with ukraine...gas prices would be the same as they are today?


Russia started it with Ukraine. I suppose we could have just rolled over and pretended we don't give a chit, and pretend that it will end there. I can't do that. I have relatives in Poland and know the threats are always there.


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

MarkJames said:


> Russia started it with Ukraine. I suppose we could have just rolled over and pretended we don't give a chit, and pretend that it will end there. I can't do that. I have relatives in Poland and know the threats are always there.


My money is on...they wouldn't have started anything if a certain prson would have rightfully been in office.
Even a lot of dems agree with that.


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## Tom M (Jan 3, 2007)

A large pool of people have been robbed of being able to afford a new car hence the reason leasing and easy lending became common. 
The car unions were helped with bailouts and they did what they were told.
Outsourcing parts to keep costs at bay while the public lost manufacturing for all kinds of things we are now vulnerable for.
Tariffs we're long over due.

Government trying to control everything isnt free or cheap.

I want a new truck myself. I can't fathom a payment right now. Nor do I want to deplete security of savings. Have to ask yourself to will the powers that be make it so expensive in parts, fuel and insurance if stay gas as well.


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

Outsourcing is a free market, classically conservative thing. Ross Perot was laughed at, but he was ahead of the curve.


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## Big Johnson (Jun 2, 2017)

https://www.sacbee.com/news/nation-world/national/article263730068.html


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

Big Johnson said:


> https://www.sacbee.com/news/nation-world/national/article263730068.html


That seems dated, but they don't know it yet. And the car dealers would have us believe the scarcity will last. It won't.


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## hdavis (Feb 14, 2012)

Tom M said:


> A large pool of people have been robbed of being able to afford a new car


Entry new cars are about the same as always.

Nobody is selling a model T any more.


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## Tom M (Jan 3, 2007)

So what your thoughts? Spoiled and lazy people not wanting to save up for a KIA when you could drive right away in style for half a weeks paycheck.
I wouldn't disagree with that either


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

I'm of the belief that affordable and reliable cars are still available. It takes ongoing effort to find them and follow up to get them, not to mention doing some learning from online and wherever else. If you watch Craig daily for more than a week, everyday, you will see the patterns.


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## Tom M (Jan 3, 2007)

I thought about the model T in all of this push to electric too


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

In 5-6 years (guessing on the battery advancements), most everybody that isn't a contractor is going to prefer electric. For economic reasons. That's my little prediction.

And if anyone has some speculative "play" money lying around, BYD and Tesla might be worth a look right now. Not financial advice. Just following the trends and the segment.


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

MarkJames said:


> In 5-6 years (guessing on the battery advancements), most everybody that isn't a contractor is going to prefer electric. For economic reasons. That's my little prediction.


I disagree.
The electric rates will be through the roof....and you know it.


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

Robie said:


> I disagree.
> The electric rates will be through the roof....and you know it.


Hopefully we all live long and healthy lives to see what happens.


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

MarkJames said:


> In 5-6 years (guessing on the battery advancements), most everybody that isn't a contractor is going to prefer electric. For economic reasons. That's my little prediction.
> 
> And if anyone has some speculative "play" money lying around, BYD and Tesla might be worth a look right now. Not financial advice. Just following the trends and the segment.



How are these electric cars going to be charged? What is going to power the charging stations or the homes where they get plugged in?

Do you think in 6-8 years the primary energy source is going to change?


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

Robie said:


> How are these electric cars going to be charged? What is going to power the charging stations or the homes where they get plugged in?
> 
> Do you think in 6-8 years the primary energy source is going to change?
> 
> View attachment 530919


They will be charged either at home or on the charging network. I'm guessing (just guessing) the range will double and more in 5-6 years. Fields of LFP batteries from Tesla and others, charged by solar and other "sustainable" sources, will feed into the grid as needed.









Commercial | Tesla


Protect and grow your business faster with reliable power, reduced costs and advanced software that optimizes itself. Learn more about how Tesla Energy can help you generate and store sustainable energy for use anytime - during peak demand or grid outages.




www.tesla.com


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

MarkJames said:


> They will be charged either at home or on the charging network. I'm guessing (just guessing) the range will double and more in 5-6 years. Fields of LFP batteries from Tesla and others, charged by solar and other "sustainable" sources, will feed into the grid as needed.


Not to kick the horse but.....when the wind dies down or the sun doesn't shine, people still need power.
That power comes from power sources that are run mostly by fossil fuels. They run continuously and not just when the windmill stops.
It just doesn't seem those making these deadlines have thought this through very well.
Of course not, they are politicians with their only interest being money and power.


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

Robie said:


> Not to kick the horse but.....when the wind dies down or the sun doesn't shine, people still need power.
> That power comes from power sources that are run mostly by fossil fuels. They run continuously and not just when the windmill stops.
> It just doesn't seem those making these deadlines have thought this through very well.
> Of course not, they are politicians with their only interest being money and power.


When the sun is shining..or the wind is blowing...the batteries are charged. They are discharged as needed. This is already happening. Successful installations in place.


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

Like you said...we'll see.


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## hdavis (Feb 14, 2012)

Unfortunately, all electric life cycle CO2 is more than a hybrid.

There's no viable all electric path for for long haul trucking, trains, airplanes.


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

hdavis said:


> There's no viable all electric path for for long haul trucking, trains, airplanes.


That might be hydrogen. Too early, though.


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## Big Johnson (Jun 2, 2017)

MarkJames said:


> Outsourcing is a free market, classically conservative thing.


Republican maybe, but not conservative.


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## rrk (Apr 22, 2012)

Many people and lots of my customers don't lease cars because they cant afford them, they do it because they do not want to invest money in something that looses value. This one guy especially has been telling me for years I should be leasing my trucks not buying them. His business leases 12 cars for management, and said tax write offs are better, does not have to worry about repairs since they are returned every 30 months. 
Others dont want to have to worry about repairs


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## rrk (Apr 22, 2012)

MarkJames said:


> That might be hydrogen. Too early, though.


In the mean time lets shut down the fossil fuel industry even though we don't have full replacement technology, that make no sense at all.

It would be curious to see why hydrogen is not being considered since several years ago you could make or buy a hydrogen generator for your car. I saw a 90s Chevy pickup with one and it had throttle bosy injection.

Most likely reason is politicians can't get rich off of it


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## hdavis (Feb 14, 2012)

Hydrogen is expensive to make.


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## Tom M (Jan 3, 2007)

I've always wrestled with leasing work trucks. The money you have to come up with to end up finishing payments on an aging truck is no joke. On the other hand renewing out of pocket lease money keeps you under the thumb.

Debt doesn't sit well on my brain I pay off credit cards every month and I have had few vehicles in my life since I keep them a long time. Mine is now 17. 120k but rusting underneath.


----------



## hdavis (Feb 14, 2012)

MarkJames said:


> That might be hydrogen. Too early, though.


Too many costly technical issues.


----------



## hdavis (Feb 14, 2012)

The funny thing is, the ICE will be around for the foreseeable future and there is plenty of room for efficiency advances, but the development teams are getting canned .

That's what govt nonsense does, guarantees suboptimal outcome.


----------



## rrk (Apr 22, 2012)

hdavis said:


> Hydrogen is expensive to make.


This is similar to what i saw





__





Amazon.com : hho generator kit for cars






www.amazon.com


----------



## rrk (Apr 22, 2012)

Tom M said:


> I've always wrestled with leasing work trucks. The money you have to come up with to end up finishing payments on an aging truck is no joke. On the other hand renewing out of pocket lease money keeps you under the thumb.
> 
> Debt doesn't sit well on my brain I pay off credit cards every month and I have had few vehicles in my life since I keep them a long time. Mine is now 17. 120k but rusting underneath.


 120k in 17 years?????? I'm at 125k in 6

They way it was explained to me by a guy who owns many medium sized businesses for a very long time was the lease payment is directly taken off your gross sales just like advertising or cleaning the building.


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## Jaws (Dec 20, 2010)

NYCB said:


> Those all play a part, but the die was cast even before that ramped up heavy with this administration.
> 
> During Covid reserves were filled to capacity, there was no where to store the excess so the price dropped a lot. On top of that, the Saudis were selling at a loss to screw over Trump's administration, they new it would force us to shut down domestic production when they could just buy it cheaper.
> 
> Once demand flew through the roof in 2021, we had shut down production, and the current administration blocked more production, and crude prices began to fly, leading us to the ramp up in price that we saw this year.


I didn't blame the whole 4 bucks a gallon on this administration, just the last 1.50 or 2 lol

The things I listed aren't debatable that they caused gas prices to go up. Part of a politicians job is having connections and making deals, they aren't even attempting that. He just tweets lower the prices and he gets flipped off, the oil companies don't respect anything about their administration and it has no connections in energy


----------



## Jaws (Dec 20, 2010)

rrk said:


> 120k in 17 years?????? I'm at 125k in 6
> 
> They way it was explained to me by a guy who owns many medium sized businesses for a very long time was the lease payment is directly taken off your gross sales just like advertising or cleaning the building.


All costs of our vehicles are logged and written off, down to cleaning products


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## Tom M (Jan 3, 2007)

rrk said:


> 120k in 17 years?????? I'm at 125k in 6
> 
> They way it was explained to me by a guy who owns many medium sized businesses for a very long time was the lease payment is directly taken off your gross sales just like advertising or cleaning the building.


I work local mostly and I had my other truck as a work truck for 7 years too


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## Tom M (Jan 3, 2007)

Jaws said:


> All costs of our vehicles are logged and written off, down to cleaning products


Of course. I as a one man band have too much unsecured monthly cost to recover so another bill I avoid.


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## hdavis (Feb 14, 2012)

rrk said:


> This is similar to what i saw
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That would be a combined hydrogen and oxygen generator used to get more complete combustion, and probably higher / earlier cylinder pressure. Something like that could actually be viable.

It mainly still runs on gas/diesel.

Before gasohol, you could get a 10% boost in gas mileage in an old engine just by switching to Super due to the better combustion.


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## Jaws (Dec 20, 2010)

Tom M said:


> Of course. I as a one man band have too much unsecured monthly cost to recover so another bill I avoid.



Cleaning?


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## Tom M (Jan 3, 2007)

I lost you?


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## Jaws (Dec 20, 2010)

I wash my truck myself. My guys take theirs to a wash, I think it costs about the same as for me to clean my own truck lol

I usually clean my wifes every other Sunday but missed last 4, too her sled to the office with me today and have a gentlemen coming to detail it, try to do that for her car every quarter, usually just 2-3 times a year. Hers isn't a write off 😆


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## Jaws (Dec 20, 2010)

Tom M said:


> I lost you?


I assumed you were talking about a cleaning bill since you quoted a post talking about cleaning products


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## Tom M (Jan 3, 2007)

I wash mine like you and twice a year I paid detailer to do a compound and wax. 150$. Inside and out through the business of course.


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## rrk (Apr 22, 2012)

Jaws said:


> All costs of our vehicles are logged and written off, down to cleaning products


yes but the cost is considered an asset, the way he told me it is an expense. I am not the accountant so it confused me. They have been in business since 1920 and now have 12 or so companies and buy and sell companies all the time so I take his word for it.

He knew all PPP loans were going to be forgiven when they first came out, and said other people did also and committed fraud by saying that had huge payrolls when they had little or no payroll.


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

Electrofuels, anyone?









New Volkswagen Chief Has History Backing Synthetic Fuels


Oliver Blume, who also heads up the car maker’s Porsche brand, has pushed electrofuels as alternatives to electric cars.




www.wsj.com


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## CGC2014 (Jul 3, 2014)

hdavis said:


> I recommend 0% on a personal car note.
> 
> If you can't afford the car, what makes you think you can afford the loan?


Hi. I wasn't sure if this was a general comment or an inquiry to me. As others have stated, the car loan industry is up in the Trillions of dollars not millions or billions. This tells us that many, many, many, many (lol emphasis on many) people choose to finance cars or trucks or vehicles in general. More finance than pay cash. Using the logic you just offered, how many people would be driving a car/truck if they wait until they could pay cash for it? 

Secondly, every one does not care about paying the entire car off when that large sum of cash can go towards making themselves more money. For example, if a business owner pays $500 per month for a truck note and uses the truck to drive him or herself to various job sites to generate $10,000 per month in income what is wrong with that? They could always stay ahead if proper planning is in place. Then they could max out their Roth IRA, buy something tangible such as land, or invest in their business with the sum of money they didn't put into the car at the purchase of it.

Thirdly, there are times when 0% financing can be obtained. 0% is free money so why not take advantage of that. Obviously, they need to evaluate their monthly budget and buy only what they can comfortably pay for.

Fourth, some people may drive a low number of miles annually and want to keep newer vehicles that are under factory warranty. Driving such cars could be considered a toy or a hobby for them. As long as there is some equity in the vehicle this plan could work when they trade cars every three or four years. Some people are car people and enjoy driving different cars regularly. If all their responsibilities are taken care of, I personally have no issues with one doing this.

Lastly, it is hard to put everything in a little box. There are different strokes for different folks. Some people do more research than others, negotiate out the door pricing more effectively, and have the disposable income to drive what they want.

If your question was for me directly, then I would say my credit score in the mid 800's, my past performance of never being credit score affecting late on a payment for at least 15+ years, having more liquidity on hand than I owe on the vehicle, having a car payment less than 5% of my monthly income, and a six figure annual income would all go very well towards being able to feel comfortable about being able to pay the car or cars off. 

Let me also preface all of this by saying there are ways to purchase vehicles and not become upside down on the loan and keep the value up on the car by limiting miles driven, choosing cars that do not depreciate as fast as others, etc. I bought a brand new Dodge Charger Scat Pack 392 for about $9,000 under MSRP, drove it for 26,500 miles over a 4 year period, enjoyed the heck out of it, and then sold it to a dealer for the same thing I paid for it 4 years earlier. I also bought a one year old used truck and it had over 80,000 miles on it after 6 years. I was able to get about $9,000 less than what I paid for it. That represents about $1,500 worth of depreciation over those years and you better believe I made more than $1,500 a year from using that truck for work, tax deductions, etc. Hopefully, I was not too long winded and made some points that are understandable.


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## tjbnwi (Feb 24, 2009)

MarkJames said:


> Number of ships and their cargo, and limit of storage, etc. And somehow, we didn't have a system to know the total number of inbound ships and plan accordingly. Maybe we do now.


I will look for the news show I saw which showed every ship being tracked by the Port of LA. They knew when every vessel disembarked the loading port to them and exactly what its burden was. 

Tom


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## rrk (Apr 22, 2012)

hahahahaha good one keep trying
They have been keeping records for years and years, its not like going to a store you have to schedule a docking a long time before you actually dock. A friend used to work for Maersk.


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## tjbnwi (Feb 24, 2009)

MarkJames said:


> Tracking is not managing. You're going to make me look this one up, now (damned you). I was reading all about it, and how we lack a system like europe (I think it was europe)


Not even close to what I saw. The ships were slotted once they left the loading port. They knew within and hour or so how long it would take the vessel to reach its staging area. When the ship got closer they could get this down to minutes. 

Tom


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## rrk (Apr 22, 2012)

If you think the Port Authority will let a ship into the port without knowing anything about it or whats on it you are nuts


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

Better stick to swamp politics Mark.


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## rrk (Apr 22, 2012)

tjbnwi said:


> Not even close to what I saw. The ships were slotted once they left port.
> 
> Tom


They have a window scheduled I think 36 hrs they update the port all the way and then confirm time


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## rrk (Apr 22, 2012)

Watching the cars being driven off the ships was cool, my wife knows someone who does that. Van to ship, car to lot, van to ship over and over


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

__





PierPass Updates Still Under Review; Trucking Industry Seeks Modernized Appointment Systems • Long Beach Business Journal


Last year, 17.6 million twenty-foot equivalent cargo containers moved through the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles combined, positioning them both firmly atop the list of the nation’s busiest ports. Every day, hundreds of trucks file through the ports’ gates. Reducing the traffic congestion...




lbbusinessjournal.com







https://www.pierpass.org/news/tmf-at-ports-of-los-angeles-and-long-beach-to-increase-4-2-on-august-1-2-3-3/


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

Appointment based. Woo hoo.





__





Shift to “appointments-based” system key to PierPass evolution


More details on how the Ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach are taking advantage of OffPeak traffic mitigation programs initiated by PierPass to keep the nation’s largest ocean cargo gateways competitive.



www.mmh.com


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## BC Rollin (Oct 15, 2021)

Jaws said:


> I knew a builder, I grew up he was one of the big builders, nice house, nice cars for his wife, new truck every year, owned lots and buildings, nice office. I wouldn't say I looked up to him but I defintely took notice of his situation and wanted to build something similar.
> 
> In 2010 he bought a new King Ranch, less than 10 weeks before he filed chapter 11, the month before that he was still saying he was busy as hell. Truck got taken back, lost his lots, office and some rent property. His wife got the house in 2012 when she left him.
> 
> ...


Respect dude. Well said. So true.


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

And who says men can't multi-task and focus on more than one thing at a time? Well done. 😄


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## Windycity (Oct 3, 2015)

tjbnwi said:


> Explain to me what screwed up what has worked for decades please? What changed?
> 
> Tom


Well I can tell you first hand that the railroads are a contributing factor to this mess and the railroads themselves are partially responsible for this supply chain mess

Not anybody or anything to do with the government or regulations had anything to do with the railroads decision to cut costs 

The railroads implemented a new system of a severe cost-cutting plan called PSR which they started well before Biden was in charge. It’s called precision scheduled railroad 

When Covid hit they used the Covid shut down as an excuse to cut even more jobs and store thousands of locomotives and shut down facilities to boost their operating ratio numbers 

Their stock prices have skyrocketed because of it and they had absolutely no buffer to be able to accommodate the surge of shipping demand

Currently railroad headcount is still down 30% from 8-9 years ago but we are still moving approximately the same amount of freight, but the minute there is any disruption to the operation (weather, derailment, equipment failure, surge in volume etc) the railroads have NO buffer to accommodate the disruptions, this was a BUSINESS DECISION NOT THE GOVERNMENT 

Here is an example, daily the most important train we have at my yard is the MPRNP, it is a (M)anifest train and goes from proviso PR (Chicago) to north platte NP (Nebraska). It is consistently late leaving my yard. I’m not saying it is like an hour late I’m saying that it is HOURS or even a day late…..why you may ask? It’s because they don’t have any power (locomotives) available and ready to pull the train, BUT we literally have over a HUNDRED locomotives in storage in my yard alone just sitting there silently rusting to the rails they are sitting on. System wide We still have thousands of locomotives in long term storage 

Why? 

Because they can’t take them out of storage because it will mess up their operating ratio

If they have locomotives on standby they they wouldn’t have to wait for locomotives to move freight, but with PSR it is do more with even less and it is creating a supply chain mess, AND they also Laid off so many diesel mechanics they Couldn’t even service the locomotives if they did bring them back since they don’t have the experts to service them

It’s the same with manpower, if they wouldn’t have furloughed so many people then they would have been better suited to accommodate the extra demand


Now that being said this is my direct experience from my employer that I work for and have been with for 18 years, we have been saying for years that their new business plan will eventually fail. It took a while but it is certainly coming back to bite the company in the rear. However their stock prices and their profits are sky high so they believe it is successful, however the railroads service to their customer has fallen off the cliff and now the railroads are blaming everyone else for the issues they are facing EXCEPT for themselves 

I cannot comment on any other of the supply chain issues dealing with trucking companies and the ports since I have no experience with them but I do know the railroads play in integral part of the system and Their business decisions are definitely affecting the American consumers and businesses that they serve

It has nothing to do with butt plug Pete, crooked Hillary, Trump, the rinos or Pocahontas

It’s on the UP


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

A supply chain overview from Forbes (September 2021)









No End In Sight For The COVID-Led Global Supply Chain Disruption


Problems persist in the global supply chain, and they may get worse before they get better.




www.forbes.com


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## Windycity (Oct 3, 2015)

MarkJames said:


> A supply chain overview from Forbes (September 2021)
> 
> 
> 
> ...


My wife is an importer and distributor of quartz countertops


She has about gone crazy the last few years constantly dealing with container issues

She has a lot of customers that wanted countertops but they were sitting out in a container on the ocean with no timetable of when they were to arrive 


David


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## tjbnwi (Feb 24, 2009)

Windycity said:


> Well I can tell you first hand that the railroads are a contributing factor to this mess and the railroads themselves are partially responsible for this supply chain mess
> 
> Not anybody or anything to do with the government or regulations had anything to do with the railroads decision to cut costs
> 
> ...


Thank you for the insight.

Tom


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## hdavis (Feb 14, 2012)

Windycity said:


> Well I can tell you first hand that the railroads are a contributing factor to this mess and the railroads themselves are partially responsible for this supply chain mess
> 
> Not anybody or anything to do with the government or regulations had anything to do with the railroads decision to cut costs
> 
> ...


I agree with what the rail company did there.

This is roughly equivalent to JIT. It also has the same drawbacks.


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

Total shipping containers were also reduced to boost profits. Send them loaded to faraway places, and leave them there.


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

Very strange (very) that this happened overnight when the China-virus scandemic took control.


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

Robie said:


> Very strange (very) that this happened overnight when the China-virus scandemic took control.


Remember the stories about the shippers leaving empty, rather than be delayed in taking on cargo? There was talk about legislation against that. I don't recall if anything happened.


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## Tom M (Jan 3, 2007)

It's real hard to believe the people looking to slow everyone down to save the planet didn't have a hand in jamming the wheel


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## Big Johnson (Jun 2, 2017)

He said $30,000 used cars are going to lose $2500 in value by 2nd quarter 2023. Those cars are currently overpriced by $10,000. That’s not a crash.


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

Big Johnson said:


> He said $30,000 used cars are going to lose $2500 in value by 2nd quarter 2023. Those cars are currently overpriced by $10,000. That’s not a crash.


"Correction."


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## tombeck2727 (Mar 16, 2019)

MarkJames said:


> Anybody else reading about the (potential) car market crash ahead? Late payments and repo is way up, and vehicle values are (probably) about to roll-over from rising inventory in the wholesale market.
> 
> Late payments are rising in all states, and DC tops the list where 24% of car loan payments are now late.


I recently noticed there is a TREMENDOUS amount of used vehicles for sale, as opposed to a few weeks ago. Prices are still insanely inflated; Is it people are simply trying to profiteer by selling their vehicles? They have to replace. What are they thinking?/....Are they thinking prices are going to crash and they can buy same vehicle in short future at less cost? Herd mentality.....SMH


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## tipitop (Dec 3, 2013)

NYCB said:


> If they get repo'd and sent to auction there will be deals.


What auctions. Those are dealers auctions I think.


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## Tom M (Jan 3, 2007)

tombeck2727 said:


> I recently noticed there is a TREMENDOUS amount of used vehicles for sale, as opposed to a few weeks ago. Prices are still insanely inflated; Is it people are simply trying to profiteer by selling their vehicles? They have to replace. What are they thinking?/....Are they thinking prices are going to crash and they can buy same vehicle in short future at less cost? Herd mentality.....SMH


I think there is some of that going on as well. It depends on a few things like job need, condition and type of car but I can see it being opportunistic.


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## Calidecks (Nov 19, 2011)

I've lived through many recessions. The trick is to not barrow more than you have to.


Mike.
*___*


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## Mordekyle (May 20, 2014)

Calidecks said:


> I've lived through many recessions. The trick is to not barrow more than you have to.
> 
> 
> Mike.
> *___*


Was 1929 the worst you’ve seen?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## NYCB (Sep 20, 2010)

Calidecks said:


> I've lived through many recessions. The trick is to not barrow more than you have to.
> 
> 
> Mike.
> *___*


My goal all year has been to be business debt free by the end of it.

I want to go into a potentially slow year owning everything that makes me money, rather than having to pay on it.


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## JoeStanton (Sep 24, 2008)

My only debt is my mortgage and that's only about 140k. I have a 22 chevy 3500 and a 14 gmc 1500 with about 50k so I'm good truck wise for a bit. We can live off my wife salary if needed so I can weather a pretty bad storm. Having guys is where I'm having trouble as my bigger work is all holding off. I will keep them busy one way or another.

I feel like an idiot for paying cash for my addition when interest was so low. I figured I would get things as far as I felt comfortable and then lock in a HELOC. I didn't see interest rates going up this quickly. I don't want to miss out on cheap property and just set myself back a step.


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## NYCB (Sep 20, 2010)

My mortgage is next year's goal. It's a fixed rate, so it's not a huge deal, but owning everything free and clear will feel pretty good, and provide a lot of borrowing leverage for later.


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## Djea3 (Jul 6, 2020)

NYCB said:


> My mortgage is next year's goal. It's a fixed rate, so it's not a huge deal, but owning everything free and clear will feel pretty good, and provide a lot of borrowing leverage for later.


The problem with "borrowing leverage" is that it by definition REQUIRES your to be in the borrowing (credit) side. Pay off your house and magically your credit will eventually DROP. Pay off your cars and a short while later your credit drops again. In other words, your leverage power will diminish because you got "out of the game".


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## Mordekyle (May 20, 2014)

Djea3 said:


> The problem with "borrowing leverage" is that it by definition REQUIRES your to be in the borrowing (credit) side. Pay off your house and magically your credit will eventually DROP. Pay off your cars and a short while later your credit drops again. In other words, your leverage power will diminish because you got "out of the game".


I’m fine with poor credit.

No mortgage, no car payments. Wife owes about 4 grand on a credit card we will pay off next month.

Having 700k worth of collateral seems like good leverage to me.

Beats having good credit and being half a million in debt.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## letgomywago (12 mo ago)

Mordekyle said:


> I’m fine with poor credit.
> 
> No mortgage, no car payments. Wife owes about 4 grand on a credit card we will pay off next month.
> 
> ...


There's a reason why the system is geared to try and convince you otherwise just like 300k debt for a 18 year old to "better themselves". You gotta swim upstream to stay away from the waterfall.


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## NYCB (Sep 20, 2010)

Djea3 said:


> The problem with "borrowing leverage" is that it by definition REQUIRES your to be in the borrowing (credit) side. Pay off your house and magically your credit will eventually DROP. Pay off your cars and a short while later your credit drops again. In other words, your leverage power will diminish because you got "out of the game".


I'm not too worried about it. When I do commercial loans or a line of credit I use business assets as collateral. I've used my bank for a long time as well so typically I'm approved the next day when I apply for something, even when my credit score is below 700.

They look at more than just your score, they check credit history as a customer, and current asset values.


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## rich_3341 (Dec 1, 2021)

Big Johnson said:


> He said $30,000 used cars are going to lose $2500 in value by 2nd quarter 2023. Those cars are currently overpriced by $10,000. That’s not a crash.


Exactly. My 2019 Tacoma with 50K miles that I paid $27,000 (super basic 4 banger) is worth three years later $27,500 as per Kelly Blue Book instant trade. If it drops a few thousand dollars from its new price over the next 6 months that is not a crash. The whole point of raising interest rates was to slow the market. The market is barely slowing and people are freaking out.


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## Big Johnson (Jun 2, 2017)

If they want to tame inflation they need to cut off the free money and make people get their asses back to work. I heard there’s still people on Rona unemployment.


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## rich_3341 (Dec 1, 2021)

There is still a huge truck shortage. An F150 ordered today is going to take 6-9 months to get in many cases. When an F150 has 3 bed lengths * 5 Trim levels * 4/5 engine sizes * 10 colors a dealer having 10 (or even 20) trucks on the lot does not mean the shortage is over. I know lots of people that want to buy a new car but are sitting on the side because the process of buying a car/truck is strange when you can't see and many samples and then then waiting a year to get it what you ordered. There is a lot of built up demand for when the market starts to catch up.


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## pinwheel (Dec 7, 2009)

Djea3 said:


> The problem with "borrowing leverage" is that it by definition REQUIRES your to be in the borrowing (credit) side. Pay off your house and magically your credit will eventually DROP. Pay off your cars and a short while later your credit drops again. In other words, your leverage power will diminish because you got "out of the game".



Your ignorance on the subject is on full display. My home is debt free, my shop/warehouse & all my cabinet builcing/floor tools are debt free. We have multiple credit cards & dozens of credit accounts with out suppliers, all get paid off monthly. 

You want to guess what our credit score is? By your logic, is should be low. But the fact is, it's well over 800. Last time we checked, I think it was somewhere around 835. 

We bank with banks that know us, not just as a #, but know our net worth because they have our financial statements on file. Our assets and our borrowing history with them weighs heavy in their decision to loan us money, not just a credit score & debt to income ratio.


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## NYCB (Sep 20, 2010)

Big Johnson said:


> If they want to tame inflation they need to cut off the free money and make people get their asses back to work. I heard there’s still people on Rona unemployment.


I think even with extensions in NY (including the pandemic extension) the maximum claim period is 99 weeks. So that would have run out this spring for a lot of people.


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## imkiler.frost (7 mo ago)

Tom M said:


> I posted about this elsewhere weeks ago.
> 
> The tables are set for this problem. Chip shortages, huge buy backs on old cars to push you into electric. The infrastructure isn't there, the ambition for people to take on debt for sure it isn't there. Probably 30% of the work force quit over mandates are financially strapped. Then there's 30% of the workforce working home which again supports the lack of ambition.
> There are people in this country that either by design or by living in a bubble have promoted car leasing and monthly debt over ownership of anything. We've been told that 60% if not more couldn't handle a 1,000. Repair. So a lot of people are in a bind to go into debt to keep a car on the road or a lease payment.
> ...


I was just getting service today at my neighbourhood dealer. For $45,000, they had a used '22 WRX Limited. For $80,000, they had a Model 3 Performance. I have no idea why somebody would pay $18,000 for a secondhand automobile!


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## tipitop (Dec 3, 2013)

Well in 2009 I paid for my F250 LD 99. with 93k 2700$ on auction. Same truck with 93k 10 years old would cost me today 20k$. My eyeball is USA is slowly demising. Justice system is cancer already. Everyone can see what is California today.


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## JFM constr (Jul 26, 2014)

calif is great for me . also that truck years ago is nothing as fancy as todays trucks .not saying better or worse just not so easily compared .my first truck was a 48 gmc ,what a piece of noisy rough riding slow iron that was .


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)




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## META (Apr 9, 2015)

Funny, I was just thinking it was getting close to a good time to upgrade my wife's car and potentially get another truck for the company.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk


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## Big Johnson (Jun 2, 2017)

I think he’s wrong.


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## META (Apr 9, 2015)

Big Johnson said:


> I think he’s wrong.


Why 

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk


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## Big Johnson (Jun 2, 2017)

The paper plate thing seemed like bullshlt so everything else he said probably is too.


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## Big Johnson (Jun 2, 2017)

I think sales will go back to normal but I don’t believe there will be a crash. Banks will sit on the cars before they dump them cheap.


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## META (Apr 9, 2015)

Big Johnson said:


> The paper plate thing seemed like bullshlt so everything else he said probably is too.


Yeah, that seemed very loose and unsubstantiated support for repo increasing. 

His claim to almost get to Vanilla seemed exaggerated as well. 

Regardless, I could see how auto prices are dropping. 

I watched the used car guy near me go out of business recently. Not sure why, other than his inventory was so low it didn't warrant the facility he was using. No sudden move, just a slow trickle of less and less vehicles for sale.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

Big Johnson said:


> The paper plate thing seemed like bullshlt so everything else he said probably is too.


What he's describing is along the lines of Lucky Lopez. Sounds like it is bound to happen... but exactly when the dam breaks is the question.


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## META (Apr 9, 2015)

Big Johnson said:


> I think sales will go back to normal but I don’t believe there will be a crash. Banks will sit on the cars before they dump them cheap.


The carrying costs on a used and depreciating vehicle has got to be significant. 

That repo loss would need to be huge to risk keeping those around to gain, a couple thousand per vehicle? 

I'd hate to be that guy.

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## Windycity (Oct 3, 2015)

Big Johnson said:


> Banks will sit on the cars before they dump them cheap.



I don’t agree with that. 

Banks don’t like Assets sitting on their books that are not generating money 

I know we haven’t talked about this lately with the skyrocketing home values but Look at foreclosure. Banks will write off a huge loss just to move a property off the books

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## rrk (Apr 22, 2012)

Things will change with all of the flooded cars after the hurricane


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

Windycity said:


> I don’t agree with that.
> 
> Banks don’t like Assets sitting on their books that are not generating money
> 
> ...


The point is the the banks are in denial, thinking they're going to eventually get their asking price in the weeks ahead. They're not ready to accept the haircut, but the problem is that everyone is thinking that way...as the lots are filling. There's going to be a capitulation.


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## Big Johnson (Jun 2, 2017)

I think there’s enough pent up demand to keep used car prices fairly stable. 10% cut in price at most.


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

I think really cheap stuff will hold up as mid and high end gets chopped.


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## rrk (Apr 22, 2012)

Windycity said:


> I don’t agree with that.
> 
> Banks don’t like Assets sitting on their books that are not generating money
> 
> ...


Not in NJ, takes 5 years or more for a foreclosed home to be put on the market.


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## Windycity (Oct 3, 2015)

rrk said:


> Not in NJ, takes 5 years or more for a foreclosed home to be put on the market.


I’m not talking about how long the foreclosure process is

I am referring to how long a bank holds on to the property when they can legally put it on the market 

I have talked to people at both small and large banks and they confirmed that banks do not hold on to property because it throws off their balance sheets


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## rrk (Apr 22, 2012)

Windycity said:


> I’m not talking about how long the foreclosure process is
> 
> I am referring to how long a bank holds on to the property when they can legally put it on the market
> 
> ...


5 years from the time the bank gets the house to the time its back on the market. A house just down the street from me, husband died wife signed house to the bank. Took 5 years to hit the market.


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## rrk (Apr 22, 2012)

Remember most of the high end car manufacturers destroy unsold cars at the end of the model year. It keeps the value of next model year high.

I wonder if Ford destroyed the 2020 or 2021 unsold vehicles?


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## MarkJames (Nov 25, 2012)

rrk said:


> Remember most of the high end car manufacturers destroy unsold cars at the end of the model year. It keeps the value of next model year high.
> 
> I wonder if Ford destroyed the 2020 or 2021 unsold vehicles?


I never heard that before.


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## Big Johnson (Jun 2, 2017)

I don’t think any get destroyed, dealers buy them as fast as they come off the assy. line and are responsible for selling them to the public. Someone buys them eventually. If anything they might bundle a deal to a rental company to keep the lowered price on the DL.


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## NYCB (Sep 20, 2010)

Big Johnson said:


> I think sales will go back to normal but I don’t believe there will be a crash. Banks will sit on the cars before they dump them cheap.


Remember the last time there was a downturn? New cars and trucks still cost a **** load of money, there was just more of them to choose from.

The big thing was when fuel prices spiked, used trucks become reasonably priced again, but were still market value.

Anyone that thinks there is going to be a flash sale on vehicles is going to be disappointed. Anyone hoping for a market correction and a catch up of inventory though might feel pretty good about things.


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## DenverCountryBoy (Jan 10, 2021)

Used car bubble is coming back down.






"Horrendous" CarMax Results Confirm Fed Has Successfully Pushed US Economy Off A Cliff | ZeroHedge


ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




www.zerohedge.com





I just sold my 2013 Explorer. It took 3 weeks and I had to cut the price a couple times to find a buyer. If I had been able to sell it 5 or 6 months ago, I could have gotten 20% more.


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## NYCB (Sep 20, 2010)

I browse marketplace pretty regularly, lots of things are being listed more often now and staying listed for longer.

My dad wants a UTV to get grandpa into the woods for hunting season, so I was poking around last night.

Found a nice looking RZR and the description said "Looks good, runs good, I need the money more than I need to have it"

I'm guessing lots of people are going to have to start selling stuff that they are either making payments on, or can't afford to keep around.


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## Jaws (Dec 20, 2010)

NYCB said:


> I browse marketplace pretty regularly, lots of things are being listed more often now and staying listed for longer.
> 
> My dad wants a UTV to get grandpa into the woods for hunting season, so I was poking around last night.
> 
> ...



I want a 4 seater Polaris Ranger, I figire next summer I'll get one at a good price cash


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## NYCB (Sep 20, 2010)

Jaws said:


> I want a 4 seater Polaris Ranger, I figire next summer I'll get one at a good price cash


I've considered getting a Kubota UTV to take to work. On bigger sites it would be nice to load up with tools and hardware, or whatever else we needed to save trips to the truck or the staging area.


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## VinylHanger (Jul 14, 2011)

Banks used all that covid money and extra unemployment income as regular income.

Lots of folks will be selling off the toys they bought. Should be some good deals soon.

Never been one for big toys. If it doesn't earn its keep it isn't needed.

That doesn't count the Suburban in the pasture. It's a an old cheap toy.

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## NYCB (Sep 20, 2010)

I'm not a toy guy either. Every time I end up with one, I never use it, and I just sell it for more than I paid.

Work is now my hobby, so that makes it worse.

I did buy a new rifle this year, but it's been several years, and it was a caliber I don't have yet......haven't even shot it yet though.


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## Jaws (Dec 20, 2010)

Lifes short, I'd rather take the trip, take the chance make my move, whatever it is. I dont have anything inlook back on and wish id did. I may not be pretty or amart but i always asked the girl out, bid the job, appraoched a prospect out of my league over and over etc etc.... I pay cash for toys or I don't buy em, and if I can't afford it I don't buy it.

When you rely on toys to make you happy you're ****ing up imo. If it's an enhancement and it's doable I'll take it. If not, my life's not going to be less enjoyed not having them


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## Jaws (Dec 20, 2010)

NYCB said:


> I've considered getting a Kubota UTV to take to work. On bigger sites it would be nice to load up with tools and hardware, or whatever else we needed to save trips to the truck or the staging area.



I want mine to chase birds 

It's tough to justify though, I rarely use a sxs on our property, if I'm working on something on the place I throw my chit in the tractor bucket


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## pinwheel (Dec 7, 2009)

Jaws said:


> I want mine to chase birds
> 
> It's tough to justify though, I rarely use a sxs on our property, if I'm working on something on the place I throw my chit in the tractor bucket



I have no problem justifying either one of ours. Plus with our property being classified as ag, we were able to write them off as farm equipment. My shop is 300 yds from the house, we use them to commute to work. Hunting & working around the farm is also easier because of them.

We've got a polaris 570 midsize & a polaris 1000xp. We were able to buy the 1000xp right before stuff got stupid 1 1/2 years ago.


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## Jaws (Dec 20, 2010)

pinwheel said:


> I have no problem justifying either one of ours. Plus with our property being classified as ag, we were able to write them off as farm equipment. My shop is 300 yds from the house, we use them to commute to work. Hunting & working around the farm is also easier because of them.
> 
> We've got a polaris 570 midsize & a polaris 1000xp. We were able to buy the 1000xp right before stuff got stupid 1 1/2 years ago.



Yeah we get an ag exemption. My FIL uses his, I just never really use mine. I'm either in my truck or on the tractor. Other than hunting I don't use them, even when I shoot a deer on our place I throw it in the tractor bucket


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## Jaws (Dec 20, 2010)

Used trucks seem significantly cheaper down here around Rio Grande City


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## Big Johnson (Jun 2, 2017)

I hold back my told-you-so for now.






__





Wholesale prices drop, retail rises as car dealers profit big






www.msn.com


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