# 2010 is going to be HUGE!



## nEighter

HusqyPro said:


> I have a quick and easy fix. The NSA can use their supercomputers to wipe out everyones debt and reset all credit scores to over 800. Presto chango, fixed economy. :thumbsup:It's all numbers on a screen anyway.:whistling


funny. Back way back in the day there was an idea that every 50yrs your debt was wiped free. So if at 50yrs ( a set date) everyones debt was whiped clean. Every 7th year all debt for those years was due. So every 7 yrs you had to pay all your debt off, and every 50th yr you could write off your debt.


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## hbelectric

2010 could be a good year for some, but overall the construction idustry is dead in the water or so is credit.


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## HusqyPro

Locally I think there's going to be some work at UofI next year. Fraternity/sorority houses are due for renovation. The law school is moving to Boise and the building is going to be renovated, the ag buildings are due for renovation.

WSU is looking to go vertical and get more space with taller buildings.

Potlatch Mill is gearing up for a big turnaround sometime next June.

It actually might be ok around here next year.


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## thorroofer

Every body has to have a roof. Roofing I Hope will pick up and fly


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## KennMacMoragh

Warren said:


> I am an optimist. I am also a thrifty businessman. I have never owned a new vehicle in my life and I do not spend more than I make.


I am thrifty too, I've never owned a new vehicle and I spend less than I make. But I am a cynicist, being optimistic never did me any favors. I've found being optimistic will just blind me to things that can go wrong. If you want to be optimistic, that's fine but still be prepared for the worse. Keep money stowed away in your account, enough to live on for at least six months in case your income ever got totally cut off. There's all kinds of predictions for 2010, I'm starting to believe too that it will boom. But bottom line is we don't know, I am still putting away as much money as I can.


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## LNG24

KennMacMoragh said:


> I am thrifty too, I've never owned a new vehicle and I spend less than I make. But I am a cynicist, being optimistic never did me any favors. I've found being optimistic will just blind me to things that can go wrong. If you want to be optimistic, that's fine but still be prepared for the worse. Keep money stowed away in your account, enough to live on for at least six months in case your income ever got totally cut off. There's all kinds of predictions for 2010, I'm starting to believe too that it will boom. But bottom line is we don't know, I am still putting away as much money as I can.


 

Even in a Boom, the 6 month rule is crucial. Actually, its during the boom that you can actually tuck away 6p month of living expenses. I'd venture to bet that very few, including myself , actually have applied this rule.


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## curtis foote

thank you mike for the positive attitude I feel the same way I am a new contractor with very little working capitol what are some good ways to get my name out there i have tried things like lead sevices that have rediculois prices


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## highgear

I agree. People are starting to get those projects started. I think they are tired of waiting and now they are going for it. Work was almost at a stop at the beginning of the summer now I am booked until Jan. The great thing is they are all referrals.


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## KennMacMoragh

curtis foote said:


> thank you mike for the positive attitude I feel the same way I am a new contractor with very little working capitol what are some good ways to get my name out there i have tried things like lead sevices that have rediculois prices


Lots to be said on that, but sounds like a topic for another thread.


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## marketingmaven

I think it all depends on what area of the country we are talking about. Some areas are hit worse than others. In the DC area, unemployment has remained steady, mostly because of government hiring. I watch real estate each month and average prices are going up while days on the market are decreasing. Our inventory is way down and we are seeing multiple offers again, even though the county I reside in was one of the worst hit for foreclosures. Are there more to come? Probably. 

Personally, more leads are coming in. That may have more to do with the consumer confidence going up in August. Also, the fall season is approaching. To be completely honest, though, average job size is definitely down. There is definitely pent up demand. And we are seeing more and more people saying, "I don't care about the economy, I'm remodeling my kitchen anyway!"

And, yes, it all depends on what is going on in our own heads, too! I turned off the news and stopped reading the newspapers earlier this year. It was too depressing.

Here's to a great 2010!!


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## joshua1

Hi, I believe 2010 IS going to be huge, especially here in Ireland- huge unemployment, huge cutbacks and huge levels of debt, combined with huge banking difficulties that are only just beginning to hit home. It may well be a lot better across the water in the US, but that small matter of the eleventy five squadzillion dollar national defecit, Cal on the verge of bankruptcy and greatly tightened credit terms does not bode well. Demolitions may do well if the proposals to clear vast tracts of uninhabited foreclosures pans out, but I'm not sure. 
I hope im wrong, and i'm currently busy, but only because we do repairs and everyone over here is repairing not replacing. Every electrician, every plumber and every building contractor that I know is dying on their @ss at the moment, and dreading the onset of a bleak winter. Sorry to be so cheerful.j1.


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## nberman79

Oh it's definitely starting to pick up! I know the month is only 2 days old but we're seeing more and more jobs already. Very excited.


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## CSB

mrmike said:


> You Explain to me why This does not make sense !!


Because "staying positive" and "supporting out president" don't mean anything. You can ride high in the positive thinking clouds your whole life, believing in yourself, blah blah blah or you can be real, find the leaks in yourself/business/country/whatever and make an effort to improve them. Supporting the president makes zero sense if you feel the government is not representing you. Both the current and past administrations are terrible and refuse to represent Americans as a whole, rather they choose to do favors for those who got them into power via chrony capitalism. Politicians as a whole do whats best for politicians and not citizens, and thats wrong. Your theory on blindly supporting an administration simply because its in place is lazy and downright vacuous. Dissent is both the highest form of patriotism and the spur that creates action.

Mike, I hope you're right. However, just because you were right about other things doesn't mean you'll be right about this one. Hundreds of correct predictions mean nothing as a few hundred is an insignificant sample to base observations on, its entirely too easy to confuse winning strategies with short-term variance. Buy 'Fooled By Randomness' for more on this, it will shock you.


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## ArtisticHomex

I hope so, the last 3 years, since about mid-2006 has sucked! I do remember several times, in my 16 years of running this, a very slow year followed by all hell breaking lose. Hope it happens again. The $1500 cash for glass hasn't done a dang thing over here.


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## dreamz

I hope so


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## dadkins0005

honestly when you factor all the variables unemployment is about 16%. The 10% they keep talking about does not include people who have given up, or those that have to work part time because they cant find full time, just the ones actively seeking employment. On the other hand, things are picking up noticably. Its definetly survival of the fittest, doors are shuttering, construction co's around here are belly flopping daily. We norm only do comm work, can you say residential: saving my arse


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## dadkins0005

curtis foote said:


> thank you mike for the positive attitude I feel the same way I am a new contractor with very little working capitol what are some good ways to get my name out there i have tried things like lead sevices that have rediculois prices


my website keeps me going. nothing fancy, just the right key words. then we purchased att yellow pages deal, and thats prob what saved me. I never really had a residential client base, but I do now, and the sad thing is Im bidding this res. dble. and there is a residential contractor living right across the street, and he does not know who to call to even get the job. the reason is because the owner lives on the east coast.


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## soxwillwin2004

Dadkins- I appreciate that you're acknowledging the micro-economic side of our work and how a good business plan, aggressiveness, and creativity can help to offset the very real (and continuing) macro climate. Our company does residential business in D.C. Granted, we're better off than most, but competition is still intense. We've got a small shop, but I don't believe that I can't keep 8 guys busy in a city of 600,000 people unless the sky starts falling.
Regarding your ATT online Y pages, I signed a one year contract with those guys in DC and have had absolutely zero luck with this agreement, and it's become my albatross- much less successful than referrals and networking with local industry professionals. Would be curious and appreciative to get your take on how I might be able to turn the online advertising around.


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## fast fred

mike,

I'm comming down to get a slice of that pie in the spring. I'll be bringing my cousin, my brother in law, and my best friend. We do the best and fastest work ever.

But then again I've got a two year backlog fixing all the work the hacks were doing when things were booming. 

I kind of like the way things are. 

I'm always looking for work, doesn't matter if times are good or times are bad.


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## custrel

Well that's a rosy prediction, but just about every industry analyst out there thinks the opposite: construction in 2010 is going to much worse than 2009, especially commercial construction. 

Commercial was the last sector to get hit hard in the Pac NW, and according to the Associated General Contractors analysis, it will be one of the last to recover. They think it will be 2012 before full recovery. And that's rosy compared to the govt's estimate that it will take 22 quarters of growth to recover to pre-recession levels.

Out here small businesses are going belly up which means a glut of lease space. You see empty and half-empty strip malls every where. The housing market has started to make a recovery because of foreclosure sales and low interest rates, but new home construction is still dead. Apartments and condos are also half-vacant which means that construction has also come to screeching halt. Big jobs are getting cancelled or scaled way back.

In 2009, even with two towers cancelled, Portland had almost a dozen towers (buildings 12 stories or more) go up. Guess how many are slated for 2010? Two. And that's if they don't get cancelled.

There is a lot of residential remodeling going on, but with 35,000 unemployed construction workers in OR/SW WA willing to take any side jobs they can get their hands on, competition is fierce and residential construction companies are being forced to lower their prices to compete.

About 20% of my business came from residential this year, but 70% was from govt funded projects, mainly school renovations and upgrades, and govt buildings.

Most of the other GCs I've worked for or worked with have asked their remaining guys to take pay cuts. Even the carpenter's union is taking a pay cut. Some of the residential GCs and remodelers who were mid-sized players have folded because they are getting squeezed by the competition from all the smaller companies - who can work for less, and from the bigger GCs who are turning their attention to smaller projects in order to survive.

Out here unless folks re-structure to lower their overhead, get used to lower profit margins, and take on work they normally wouldn't consider, they aren't going to make through 2010.


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## custrel

Oh yeah, and don't forget that if the national health bill passes, those of you who aren't currently paying for your employees health care will be taking on a hefty expense. 

On the bright side, it may turn out to be a good thing for those of use who already pay employee health benefits, since we are already used to factoring in those costs.


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## fast fred

so the verdict is......

not only are we competing with unemployed auto workers who have become handy man carpenters we're now going to compete with commercial carpenters and unemployed union lackys who now think they can remodel a bathroom. 

at age fourteen I thought I had it figured out until I broke a light fixture and dinged a corner on a sheet carrying drywall into the house. Everyone smiled and said it was ok, cause I was an amped up kid trying to work hard.

What about a 34 year old doing that kind of stuff?


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## Mike Finley

CSB said:


> Mike, I hope you're right. However, just because you were right about other things doesn't mean you'll be right about this one. Hundreds of correct predictions mean nothing as a few hundred is an insignificant sample to base observations on, its entirely too easy to confuse winning strategies with short-term variance. Buy 'Fooled By Randomness' for more on this, it will shock you.


 



> " We must accept finite disappointment, but we must never lose infinite hope."
> Martin Luther King, Jr.


I've been right my entire life. 

You can send me my check around April 2009. :thumbup:


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## Vinny

Mike Finley said:


> Yes.
> 
> I haven't posted a single thing on this board that was incorrect or wasn't accurate. I've made hundreds of business related posts and predictions and have a 100% accuracy.
> 
> So yes, I'm guaranteeing it.
> 
> How's everybodies Ford stock doing? Everbody enjoying the 400% return as of right now?
> 
> (Do a search)


Man, I hope you are right Mike. I need it bad.


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## AJAX

Mike Finley said:


> I've been right my entire life.
> 
> You can send me my check around April 2009. :thumbup:


 
Good thing April 2009 has come and gone because all my money went to to pay all those banks to continue to operate, only for them to close my accounts, go figure.

Why is that my Great Grandparents didn't get loans for what they needed but, now I don't know ANYONE without a credit account, yet the media keeps telling us it's our fault? :blink:


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## Angdeer

Lets hope!


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## SelfContract

Yep, it's gonna be *a HUGE.. HUGE...HUGE... budget/spending deficit* for the Fed in 2010 (Obama said so!) .. *That's for SURE!...* :thumbsup::whistling


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## NCTRIM

Well if your a home builder on any level your fuct in 2010 just like 08 09 we re going to be down for a long time boys lets face it washington cares not about the hard hats


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## Darwin

LNG24 said:


> Not to worry here, when lending sources dry up...the feds print more :blink:
> ie: Cash for Clunkers, $8,000 First Time Home Buyers Credit. (in NY) an additional $1,500 for First Time Home Buyers (coming from the feds)
> 
> My question is this: You get $4,500 to trade in a clunker (which they then destroy; what can be recycled is, but the engine is not) toward a $10k - $30k car ...OR you get $8,000 off your taxes to buy a $200k home :w00t: Anyone else see the problem with the math there?
> 
> 
> 
> Agree 100% Mike! Prepare for the worst, Be Ready for the Best. I have personally seen many businesses cutting W A Y back. They cut back so much that when I go to them for their services...they can't provide them. I have experienced this with three businesses in the last 30 days.
> 
> Ya have to cut expenses, but you can't cut your ability to make money. If you have a crew of 10, figure out how to keep that crew busy, even if its not profitable during the short term because if you start getting busy, you can easily start taking more profitable jobs, you can't do anything if you don't have your crew in place.
> 
> 
> 
> There are people and countries getting VERY RICH right at this moment. They are not seeing anything, not a cent yet, but they are getting rich, why? Because they are buying on the down side, when the recovery happens, they will earn unimaginable returns on their investments. Others will then jump on and try to do the same, but the scale will already be rising and just like 2006, many will get burned, but the ones who bought on the down side always make money.
> 
> 
> 
> This is a good thing. Commercial Real Estate as an investment is in trouble. That is, like many of us that hold or held stocks, their portfolio is down. However, the trend in lower commercial rental rates is fueling NEW BUSINESS! Many start ups are now able to capitalize on the lower cost of commercial space and OPEN NEW BUSINESSES. Do I have the stats? Can I quote Reuters? NO! My facts are from the street, not what some newspaper reporter tells us after having $100 lunch with some Real Estate Execs. Within a 10 mile radius of my house, there are more than a dozen MAJOR shopping Center Make Overs! More than 20 Applications for new housing sub divisions and these shopping centers...they are filling up to 90% or better occupancy with NEW businesses.
> 
> Now, you may drive down the road and see a few dozen shopping centers that look to be in trouble. 1-5% occupancy rate or completely vacant. However, a brief trip to the towns building department and you will find that they actually pushed the tenants out because the center is in the approval stages for a complete make over. No one does this without already securing anchor stores which usually make demands as to which businesses they want or which must go.
> 
> For you Union Guys, this means that you should begin seeing commercial work pour in within the next 6 months to 2 years.
> 
> 
> 
> Not entirely true if you prepare with increased inventory, go on a hiring bing etc. But, with some really good guys laid off right now, it is a good time to re look at your crew and rebuild it with the best out there and figure out how to streamline inventory, mobilization, estimating or accounting.
> 
> When you're slow, it is the BEST time to revamp your business without too much disruption to the every day work load.
> 
> 
> 
> Don't know what you mean with the "Last 8 Years of Downfall" If your business did not do well in the last 8 years, look for another line of work. The last 3 years might have been tough for some, but before that...anyone was able to make a living, buy a home and do well in the stock market.
> 
> I honestly do not believe that ONE man is personally responsible for our success as a country or are failure as a country. Without the support of the Senate and Congress, the President, whom ever he is, can not accomplish anything. Our fore fathers set it up that way so we did not have Kings and Queens ruling our land. It must be a large group for different backgrounds.
> 
> From Condo Boards to Local Politics all the way up to State and National, I hear more people complain than are willing to step up and help. If more people would get involved in politics, there would be much less corruption.


My Eyes!!  





my eyes..


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## NCTRIM

*more beer less fear*

well GODS SPEED to all of you in this dark time. Look at the trades carpenters and hookers are among: the oldest and ass sales are not down if they were washington would help the hookers 1st


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## AJAX

Just heard a report today on the radio. Top states for average income.....drum roll please.....#1 Maryland! Exactly where everyone from Washington lives. Hmmm, go figure. 

1% of the population has 95% of the money. So, that leaves all of use to fight over the last 5%. Good times...


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## old checker

AJAX said:


> Just heard a report today on the radio. Top states for average income.....drum roll please.....#1 Maryland! Exactly where everyone from Washington lives. Hmmm, go figure.
> 
> 1% of the population has 95% of the money. So, that leaves all of use to fight over the last 5%. Good times...


Yep DC is in good shape!Heard a report on the news that rolled off the reporters tongue like gospel."The stimulas has saved the government's jobs,it is a huge success"WTF?


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## NCTRIM

Well good for them I m glad our hard work is helping them keep the CC membership I mean really life without fefe and chip !!!! at the club what kind of life is that! Keep working boys the life you save may just be your state rep and one day he may just maybe give back to the hard hats that built his house office car CC ect ......I m not being god like but if you ask me with out the builders of things the rich would have nothing ....! stand fast brothers :thumbsup:


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## SpectrumLLC

All then folks I know in the top 5 % are buliders and developers, quite frankly they are bleeding cash now. But... all have the stones to keep buying and developing. Yeah, lots of others (attorneys, Docs, geeks etc.) hold and hoard. Most Attorneys I know represent developers and they are the bulls, along with their clients (Dr's, Chiropractors and the like.) I see it weekly at local government meetings. 

Professionals are waitng to spend. Market is at a bottom, smart ones by at fire sale prices. Look for a big 2010 for tenent fitouts in suburbs, along with well prepared, well designed, attractive communities.

I have been saying this in western pa for over a year. Product sells! Time to weed out the weak, I have been at this for less time than allot of you (10 years) but every boom in the biz bring a boat full of new guys with a pickup and a ladder. Now we are getting back to those whom belong as contractors. Conceiencious, concerned, inteligent, responsibable, etc.

New to this board sorry to preach or rant. 

P.S. spelling may be bad, can't figure out the spell check down load.


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## mics_54

http://www.iespell.com/


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## SpectrumLLC

thanks mics


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## nEighter

if you use Firefox it apart of the actual browser.. will underline in red, right click a menu pops up and you can correct it there


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## SpectrumLLC

thanks Eighter as well.


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## nEighter

yep


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## FremontREO

*2010??*

R U one of those Washington DC Czars? :clap:


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## J F

That's what really counts! 

Now, were they _just _zombies, or were they COD zombies, or Red Dead Zzombies, or .....


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## summithomeinc

J F said:


> That's what really counts!
> 
> Now, were they _just _zombies, or were they COD zombies, or Red Dead Zzombies, or .....


Zombies? Huh?


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## J F

Read the thread from the beginning....


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## J F

tgeb said:


> Zombies!!


Or, from here. :laughing:


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## ohiohomedoctor

I wonder how many people actually bought that ford stock on finelys advice. I also wonder how much money he lost on that deal..


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## J F

A ton of shiite was flyin' back and forth at the time, _a ton_...

Like I said, I would be _very_ surprised if Mike's not doing_ very _well.

He is located in a great area (Don't know if by design), but he's the type that will do well, no matter what, in my opinion.


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## Oconomowoc

Love him or hate him Mike is a smart guy.


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## ohiohomedoctor

He has a commanding grip on the internet market in his area too. His website preforms very very well.


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## donerightwyo

I've read lots of finleys posts. What was his downfall after 14,000 posts? Seems maybe a guy would get a couple free passes after that long. There should a page that tells the guys that got axed and why.:thumbsup:The wonder is killing me sometimes.:laughing:


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## Metro M & L

Oconomowoc said:


> Love him or hate him Mike is a smart guy.


I thought you were mike finley. sort of like batman in the final movie, a shell of the former hero who ultimately leaves the world better off after faking his own death!!!!:laughing::laughing::clap:


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## ohiohomedoctor

donerightwyo said:


> I've read lots of finleys posts. What was his downfall after 14,000 posts? Seems maybe a guy would get a couple free passes after that long. There should a page that tells the guys that got axed and why.:thumbsup:The wonder is killing me sometimes.:laughing:


Well even with 14k posts you cannot go around telling everyone to go f themselves. Especially the hmfic..


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## donerightwyo

ohiohomedoctor said:


> Well even with 14k posts you cannot go around telling everyone to go f themselves. Especially the hmfic..


I see.



Note to self-------- Don't tell hmfic to go f themself. Got it:thumbsup:


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## Oconomowoc

If you even hinted Finley was wrong he would seek vengeance on you.


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## Oconomowoc

Metro M & L said:


> I thought you were mike finley. sort of like batman in the final movie, a shell of the former hero who ultimately leaves the world better off after faking his own death!!!!:laughing::laughing::clap:


Him and I butted heads on occasion but I still respected his advice. It was pretty solid.


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## donerightwyo

He said he is always 100% right. So your sayin maybe that ain't true?:laughing:


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## ohiohomedoctor

He helped my business in one azz chewing. Ill never forgot him for that reason. He has a funny google review. I can imagine exactly how that conversation went.


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## J F

Oconomowoc said:


> If you even hinted Finley was wrong he would seek vengeance on you.


ahh, the fun


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## VinylHanger

Left4Dead2 Zombies.


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## J F

:laughing: Quit it.


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## skcolo

Does this mean that the 2010 surge is about to hit?


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## Oconomowoc

2020 surge


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## skcolo

Oconomowoc said:


> 2020 surge


I get it, after the current POTUS's term and then four years to fix the mess.
Thanks for clearing that up :thumbsup:


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## Oconomowoc

skcolo said:


> I get it, after the current POTUS's term and then four years to fix the mess.
> Thanks for clearing that up :thumbsup:


Lol. I have no idea just threw out a number for the heck of it. 

All I know for sure is I'm doing rather well so I feel blessed. The used home market is on fire here in fact the sub $200k supply of homes is drying up. It's incredible how many homes are now selling in less than 30 days. Foreclosures are drying up also.

I'm not sure that means much though, interest rates are dirt cheap so that pulls out future buyers. I drive through town and I'm amazed at how many vacant commercial buildings are sitting. The market is currently flat and future dividends show no momentum whatsoever.

But like I said, my phone rings daily and I'm in demand. Good marketing always wins and like my Dad always told me "Son, nothing trumps sales. Nothing! The rest is just bullsh#t"


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## skcolo

Oconomowoc said:


> Lol. I have no idea just threw out a number for the heck of it.
> 
> All I know for sure is I'm doing rather well so I feel blessed. The used home market is on fire here in fact the sub $200k supply of homes is drying up. It's incredible how many homes are now selling in less than 30 days. Foreclosures are drying up also.
> 
> I'm not sure that means much though, interest rates are dirt cheap so that pulls out future buyers. I drive through town and I'm amazed at how many vacant commercial buildings are sitting. The market is currently flat and future dividends show no momentum whatsoever.
> 
> But like I said, my phone rings daily and I'm in demand. Good marketing always wins and like my Dad always told me "Son, nothing trumps sales. Nothing! The rest is just bullsh#t"


Sounds pretty much like the market here.


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## donerightwyo

skcolo said:


> Sounds pretty much like the market here.


Your from Denver, you know Mr. Finley?


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## skcolo

donerightwyo said:


> Your from Denver, you know Mr. Finley?


No, I don't know him. I know of his company and it's good reputation.


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## fast fred

I'm so glad I only worry about dumb stuff, like how much snow we're going to get this year? Will the broncos win the super bowl? Will the nuggets not suck bad? How much will it blow to change the oil in my truck later today?


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## skcolo

fast fred said:


> I'm so glad I only worry about dumb stuff, like how much snow we're going to get this year? Will the broncos win the super bowl? Will the nuggets not suck bad? How much will it blow to change the oil in my truck later today?


Better than changing it in January, I guess.


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## Metro M & L

Oconomowoc said:


> Him and I butted heads on occasion but I still respected his advice. It was pretty solid.


Show me the thread...or it didn't halpen


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## J F

You'll have to do a search, but Finley was definitely _very_ business savvy. And fun as hell to provoke. :laughing:


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## oldfrt

I tried to never provoke Mike,left it up to others and watched
the come backs.
I would just picture his face getting redder as his blood pressure
spiked.
Didn't want to be the one to send him over the edge,though I
believed he lived for these moments.




Googled his name once,and this picture came up..........


figured he built himself a new house:jester:


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## J F

:laughing:


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## J F

Mike definitely did _not _suffer fools lightly...or most folks, for that matter.:laughing:

Too bad he got himself the permaban, but I'm pretty sure he deserved it, it takes a lot, and I know, I'm _still_ here. :thumbup:


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## J F

...for now. :whistling


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## BamBamm5144

oldfrt said:


> I tried to never provoke Mike,left it up to others and watched
> the come backs.
> I would just picture his face getting redder as his blood pressure
> spiked.
> Didn't want to be the one to send him over the edge,though I
> believed he lived for these moments.
> 
> Googled his name once,and this picture came up..........
> 
> figured he built himself a new house:jester:


Funny. I got this picture.


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## donerightwyo

You gotta think a guy like that is still lurking here somewhere.:whistling


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## J F

_maybe 
_ :whistling


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