# Seems like some hoodwinking going on...to me.



## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

> HUGE! Official IMHE Model for Coronavirus Used by CDC Just Cut Their Numbers by Half!... They're Making It Up As they Go Along!


https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/20...ed-cdc-just-cut-numbers-half-making-go-along/


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## NYCB (Sep 20, 2010)

Who the hell knows what's going on.


At home deaths in NYC are up about 10x from normal, but Covid isn't listed as the cause of death unless they had a prior positive test.


Same with older folks with a lot of co-morbidities, they might be listed as dying from pnemonia or organ failure, but how many had Covid when it happened?


I don't think we will see honest numbers from any place until next year after the dust settles.


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## hdavis (Feb 14, 2012)

They don't really have models yet, much less validated ones.

They're guessing at the model parameters.

Garbage in, garbage out.


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## Golden view (Feb 16, 2012)

hdavis said:


> They don't really have models yet, much less validated ones.
> 
> They're guessing at the model parameters.
> 
> Garbage in, garbage out.


I thought that was known and expected about models. Kind of like a model of a building. Most people know it's not the real thing.


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## hdavis (Feb 14, 2012)

LOL! 

It turns out there us a yearly prediction competition for the flu. They have 20 years of data they can use to get calibrated models for a flu season. They're decent at predicting.

They don't have enough info to come up with even basic parameters for building their models for covid. They aren't broken, they just don't really exist.


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## KAP (Feb 19, 2011)

hdavis said:


> LOL!
> 
> It turns out there us a yearly prediction competition for the flu. They have 20 years of data they can use to get calibrated models for a flu season. They're decent at predicting.
> 
> They don't have enough info to come up with even basic parameters for building their models for covid. They aren't broken, they just don't really exist.


Those pesky changing variables... :laughing:


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## hdavis (Feb 14, 2012)

State of the art flu modeling, but any technique relying on historical data is a Non starter.
Wrong link......


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## hdavis (Feb 14, 2012)

A long article, but note only the Delphi technique would be useful this year for sure, and probably another year or two:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02755-6


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## TimNJ (Sep 7, 2005)

KAP said:


> Those pesky changing variables... :laughing:


How dare they have variables in information on a disease that never existed before.


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## Calidecks (Nov 19, 2011)

Why even give numbers if you're just going to pull them out of the air?


Mike.
_______________


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## KAP (Feb 19, 2011)

Calidecks said:


> Why even give numbers if you're just going to pull them out of the air?
> 
> 
> Mike.
> _______________


Justification...


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## Leo G (May 12, 2005)

Calidecks said:


> Why even give numbers if you're just going to pull them out of the air?
> 
> 
> Mike.
> _______________


How else would you dupe the population.


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## hdavis (Feb 14, 2012)

Leo G said:


> How else would you dupe the population.


They have to seem like they know what they're talking about, and they have to make allocation decisions


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## VinylHanger (Jul 14, 2011)

I think everyone is so scared to be even a bit wrong on the lesser side that they over compensate. 

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk


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## hdavis (Feb 14, 2012)

VinylHanger said:


> I think everyone is so scared to be even a bit wrong on the lesser side that they over compensate.
> 
> Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk


I believe that's correct. With death being a very real consequence of underreacting, I think people are deciding along the "theory of regret". If they don't do all this stuff, they may regret it.


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## KAP (Feb 19, 2011)

hdavis said:


> I believe that's correct. With death being a very real consequence of underreacting, I think people are deciding along the "theory of regret". If they don't do all this stuff, they may regret it.


The scary part is how the next one will be used... 

Look how far they got on this one... what justification is there NOT to?...


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## hdavis (Feb 14, 2012)

I actually think they need a better set of actions with finer location. Maybe state House districts, and their representative gets responsibility, maybe incorporated areas are the correct unit, with unincorporated areas being county responsibility.

One thing is for sure, the state's are flatfooted in this.

It makes no sense to me to have the same level of response in high density areas and low density areas. I also think the 3-4X higher rates for African-anerucans us going to be a bug clue to figure out. I suspect it's a mass transit effect, as I expect the difference between NYC and KA is mass transit.


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## Tom M (Jan 3, 2007)

I said earlier plan for the blizzard and hope for the dusting.

The thing is it's one thing to be wrong on a two day storm and another thing for devastating financial fallout this long. This could be the point where people draw the line with the sensationalism of the media


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## Leo G (May 12, 2005)

The only problem is that as we get along in this fiasco and it seems to be winding down, they are now implementing more stringent rules when in fact things should be loosening up.

The fact that they are labeling all deaths that have anything to do with covid is asinine. He was beheaded in a horrible car crash but he just came from a nursing home were there were people who tested positive. So he might have had the virus. Oh, another covid death statistic. They don't even have to test for it now. Instead of a .1 you get a .2 at the end of the insurance classification for death by covid. The .2 means no test was done and it was _*assumed*_ to be covid.

My local rags headline was *Deaths Jump to 227, Hospital Rates Slow*

Only reason they jumped is the reclassification. Of course they jumped. If the administrator even thinks it might be a covid related death it gets marked as one.

Just look at how all the other deaths have fallen. Covid is a miracle, it's stopped all the heart attacks and cancer deaths.


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## Golden view (Feb 16, 2012)

Leo G said:


> Covid is a miracle, it's stopped all the heart attacks and cancer deaths.


Is that true?


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## Leo G (May 12, 2005)

Look at the stats. It's only covid deaths now. It's a miracle!!! At the end of the year when they post total deaths in the US you'll see the death rate is likely to be nearly the same as it was last year. They are stealing death numbers from other areas to plant them in the covid list to push the numbers up to make this look so much worse than it really is.


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## Golden view (Feb 16, 2012)

Leo G said:


> Look at the stats. It's only covid deaths now. It's a miracle!!! At the end of the year when they post total deaths in the US you'll see the death rate is likely to be nearly the same as it was last year. They are stealing death numbers from other areas to plant them in the covid list to push the numbers up to make this look so much worse than it really is.


Well, there's been close to 800,000 deaths this year in the US. 13,000 marked as covid.


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

Golden view said:


> Well, there's been close to 800,000 deaths this year in the US. 13,000 marked as covid.





> This Is Strange: Total US Deaths in March 2020 are Actually Down 15% from Average of Prior Four Years


https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/20...ch-2020-actually-15-average-prior-four-years/


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## Leo G (May 12, 2005)

Golden view said:


> Well, there's been close to 800,000 deaths this year in the US. 13,000 marked as covid.


So we should see a 13K spike in the death toll. But it's going down over past years.


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## Golden view (Feb 16, 2012)

Robie said:


> https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/20...ch-2020-actually-15-average-prior-four-years/


So in conclusion, an open/thriving economy kills more people. You heard it at the Gateway Pundit first.


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## Golden view (Feb 16, 2012)

Leo G said:


> So we should see a 13K spike in the death toll. But it's going down over past years.


13k is statistically insignificant. Death rates aren't steady.


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## Leo G (May 12, 2005)

Well, we are in a pandemic that was serious enough to stop the economy and force people to stay home. And we won't even see a blip in the death toll.

Sounds like an over reaction beyond belief.


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## Joasis (Mar 28, 2006)

TimNJ said:


> How dare they have variables in information on a disease that never existed before.



If you noticed, I was saying when this all started that the math wasn't adding up. I am not alone in understanding this concept. 

So was my speculation just a lucky guess? Or was the modeling flawed to begin with?


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## Leo G (May 12, 2005)

The model was fuqued


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## hdavis (Feb 14, 2012)

Leo G said:


> Well, we are in a pandemic that was serious enough to stop the economy and force people to stay home. And we won't even see a blip in the death toll.
> 
> Sounds like an over reaction beyond belief.


There's a basic signal to noise issue looking at it that way.


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## Golden view (Feb 16, 2012)

Leo G said:


> Well, we are in a pandemic that was serious enough to stop the economy and force people to stay home. And we won't even see a blip in the death toll.
> 
> Sounds like an over reaction beyond belief.


I think the impact to the economy will be a correspondingly sized blip.

Dow is already where it should have been this year. It was dangerously inflated.


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## Golden view (Feb 16, 2012)

Leo G said:


> So we should see a 13K spike in the death toll. But it's going down over past years.


Look at just NYC. They are getting more just covid deaths per day than normal total deaths per day. Obviously it's not entirely just attributing covid to all deaths. 

The fear was that every place could have turned out that bad or worse if we hadn't kept people home.


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## Leo G (May 12, 2005)

Golden view said:


> I think the impact to the economy will be a correspondingly sized blip.
> 
> Dow is already where it should have been this year. It was dangerously inflated.


The dow is not the economy.


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## Leo G (May 12, 2005)

Golden view said:


> Look at just NYC. They are getting more just covid deaths per day than normal total deaths per day. Obviously it's not entirely just attributing covid to all deaths.
> 
> The fear was that every place could have turned out that bad or worse if we hadn't kept people home.


How do you know they are just covid deaths since they assign just about all deaths to covid now.


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## Golden view (Feb 16, 2012)

Leo G said:


> The dow is not the economy.


Two separate statements.


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## SPG (Mar 9, 2017)

Hmmm....let's see...everyone is at home so they're not driving and getting in wrecks, they're not getting hurt on the job, they're not out mingling and getting other diseases, so yeah...it makes sense that the number of deaths would dip down a bit for a while. Big ****ing conspiracy like everything around here, right?


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## Golden view (Feb 16, 2012)

Leo G said:


> How do you know they are just covid deaths since they assign just about all deaths to covid now.


True, I don't know. I only know that the deaths reported as covid are exceeding normal rates for all deaths in NYC, for a few days anyway. I don't know where to find stats for yesterday's "other" deaths. Maybe not reported so quickly.


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## Leo G (May 12, 2005)

Bunch of BS is what it is.


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## Calidecks (Nov 19, 2011)

SPG said:


> Hmmm....let's see...everyone is at home so they're not driving and getting in wrecks, they're not getting hurt on the job, they're not out mingling and getting other diseases, so yeah...it makes sense that the number of deaths would dip down a bit for a while. Big ****ing conspiracy like everything around here, right?



If more people were driving the Coronavirus deaths would go up. 


Mike.
_______________


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## Golden view (Feb 16, 2012)

For USA. Just numbers:

Average deaths per day expected to be 7000-8000 based on 2017-2019.
April 7, 2020: 1971 Covid deaths were reported.


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## Golden view (Feb 16, 2012)

I'll bet that Covid-19 is not in the top 3 causes of death in the us for 2020. Quote me on this in 8 months.

Edit: I was going to say bet me money and then realized how horrible that was.


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## NYCB (Sep 20, 2010)

Golden view said:


> I'll bet that Covid-19 is not in the top 3 causes of death in the us for 2020. Quote me on this in 8 months.
> 
> Edit: I was going to say bet me money and then realized how horrible that was.


The flu is usually in the low end of the top 10, so if it surpasses that, it will be a little scary.

Here's the clincher though. Chronic respiratory disease is in the top 5, so to what extent will this virus exacerbate those numbers?

We are going to need to see antibody testing at some point to get a real idea of how widespread it was and how much it contributed to total death rates.


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## Leo G (May 12, 2005)

NYCB said:


> The flu is usually in the low end of the top 10, so if it surpasses that, it will be a little scary.
> 
> Here's the clincher though. Chronic respiratory disease is in the top 5, so to what extent will this virus exacerbate those numbers?
> 
> We are going to need to see antibody testing at some point to get a real idea of how widespread it was and how much it contributed to total death rates.


Why? It won't make a difference. People who got it have it, people who didn't in this round will likely get it in the next rounds if not this year, in the upcoming years. It's a virus, we have no real drugs to combat viruses. We have a few disruption drugs but for the most part they aren't very good.

As with all viruses they will run their course, people will get sick, people will die, people will become immune to this strain. Next time around the virus will mutate a bit and our immunities will no longer be sufficient.

At this point we are staring to understand the virus, how it attacks the red blood cells, and what can be done about it. We will develop strategies against it. I'm sure they will be pushing a vaccine for it soon enough, and I'm sure I won't be taking it.


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## NYCB (Sep 20, 2010)

I'll take a vaccine after the first wave has been tested out. Seems silly not to, just like the flu vaccine, even on years when it has a low rate of working, it's still better than nothing, and is harmless.


Vaccines are great, I remember the chicken pox when I was a kid, it sucked. My kids will never have to deal with it, we've basically eradicated it.


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## tjbnwi (Feb 24, 2009)

I end up getting the flu vaccine, the store offers a $25.00 gift card if you get the shot. I get the shot, they hold the card until my wife gets to work, they give her the gift card....

Tom


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## Tom M (Jan 3, 2007)

My girl got a flu shot, I prefer not to get them. When we were hit with a bad flu early Feb I was hit harder but it doesnt change my position


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## Rio (Oct 13, 2009)

There's speculation that California was exposed to the Kungflu in November, turns out that there was an early surge in 'flu' in November which is unusual and that, coupled with the fact that 8,000 Chinese a day normally come into California with a significant number of them coming from the Wuhan region and the low infection rate now in California has led to the thought that herd immunity might have occurred.


A small sample of 3,500 people in California were just tested for antibodies to the virus and those results should be available a few weeks.


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## Leo G (May 12, 2005)

NYCB said:


> I'll take a vaccine after the first wave has been tested out. Seems silly not to, just like the flu vaccine, even on years when it has a low rate of working, it's still better than nothing, and is harmless.
> 
> 
> Vaccines are great, I remember the chicken pox when I was a kid, it sucked. My kids will never have to deal with it, we've basically eradicated it.


Major disease vaccines I'd take. This is not one of them. This is a flu vaccine and I haven't and won't take one.


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## Leo G (May 12, 2005)

Rio said:


> There's speculation that California was exposed to the Kungflu in November, turns out that there was an early surge in 'flu' in November which is unusual and that, coupled with the fact that 8,000 Chinese a day normally come into California with a significant number of them coming from the Wuhan region and the low infection rate now in California has led to the thought that herd immunity might have occurred.
> 
> 
> A small sample of 3,500 people in California were just tested for antibodies to the virus and those results should be available a few weeks.


I still say I had this in Feb.


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## NYCB (Sep 20, 2010)

Leo G said:


> Major disease vaccines I'd take. This is not one of them. This is a flu vaccine and I haven't and won't take one.


What about when they get the universal flu vaccine figured out?

I'm looking forward to that one, lets eradicate one more disease.

I didn't get a flu shot this year, I completely spaced on it during my physical.

The last time I want to the pharmacy to get one the lady next to me hacked up a lung all over the place while I was sitting there.

Sure as **** I got the flu a few days later, had I not gone to get the shot that day I might not have even been exposed.


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## NYCB (Sep 20, 2010)

Leo G said:


> I still say I had this in Feb.


Did you get tested for flu?

Apparently it was pretty bad this season, a lot of kids at school got both A and B, and a lot of kids that got the shot still ended up getting A.


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## Leo G (May 12, 2005)

NYCB said:


> What about when they get the universal flu vaccine figured out?
> 
> I'm looking forward to that one, lets eradicate one more disease.
> 
> ...


No. I won't get a flu vaccine, no matter what they call it.


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## Leo G (May 12, 2005)

NYCB said:


> Did you get tested for flu?
> 
> Apparently it was pretty bad this season, a lot of kids at school got both A and B, and a lot of kids that got the shot still ended up getting A.


Go to the doctor because I have a cold? Are you kidding me?

I dealt with it like I deal with all my colds, I worked. I felt miserable and I worked. Only time I don't work is if I'm puking which usually means I have a temperature. And for the most part I don't go to the doctors.

Last time I felt bad enough I went to the emergency room and they said I had walking pneumonia. 3 zithromax pills cleared that up in 3 days.


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## NYCB (Sep 20, 2010)

Leo G said:


> Go to the doctor because I have a cold? Are you kidding me?
> 
> I dealt with it like I deal with all my colds, I worked. I felt miserable and I worked. Only time I don't work is if I'm puking which usually means I have a temperature. And for the most part I don't go to the doctors.
> 
> Last time I felt bad enough I went to the emergency room and they said I had walking pneumonia. 3 zithromax pills cleared that up in 3 days.


Don't say that you had something then if you didn't get tested to find out what it was.

Lots of people that are claiming to have already had Covid likely just had the flu.


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## Calidecks (Nov 19, 2011)

NYCB said:


> Don't say that you had something then if you didn't get tested to find out what it was.
> 
> Lots of people that are claiming to have already had Covid likely just had the flu.



But he did have something.


Mike.
_______________


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## hdavis (Feb 14, 2012)

I know a bunch of people who had "something" that was going around earlier this year. They just don't know what it was


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## Leo G (May 12, 2005)

NYCB said:


> Don't say that you had something then if you didn't get tested to find out what it was.
> 
> Lots of people that are claiming to have already had Covid likely just had the flu.


Why not? I had something. I don't get the flu. And if I do I can't separate it from a normal rhinovirus cold. This wasn't a normal cold for me.

And what do you care anyway?


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## NYCB (Sep 20, 2010)

Leo G said:


> Why not? I had something. I don't get the flu. And if I do I can't separate it from a normal rhinovirus cold. This wasn't a normal cold for me.
> 
> And what do you care anyway?


Because it's disingenuous to say that you had something that you don't know for certain you had, then to simply shrug it off while others are really struggling with it.

How do you know you don't get the flu if you've never been tested while showing symptoms?


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## Leo G (May 12, 2005)

Because it's my body.


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## NYCB (Sep 20, 2010)

You've probably had the flu at least once, most people have.

In many cases it manifests about the same as a cold, with our without various symptoms. Sometimes it totally puts you on your ass for 3-5 days.


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## Leo G (May 12, 2005)

Main time I've ever been on my ass I was puking like a mofo.

Other time was with walking pneumonia.


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## Deckhead (Dec 9, 2010)

Bottom line is Leo's point stands. This thing has almost certainly been spreading through the US a lot longer then what they said.

41 people had it in November in Wuhan, (that we know of) so probably a month before that even is patient zero. Up to 80% can be asymptomatic. With an R-naught of about 2.5 those people are responsible for about 11,000 infections. One more level of infection brings it to about 11 million.

8,000 people a day come from China to the US. That's the entire month of November if you assume to get to the second level of infection took about 2 weeks (which it's probably way less). Which gives close to 2 months for it to start getting into America. 

With those numbers, I have little doubt this was spreading undetected, for a long time throughout our country. It takes a while to get to 40 people but then is when it starts to take off. It is highly likely that many people had this in January and February and just saw it as a weird cold of some sort. You werent going to get tested for it unless you had traveled overseas. 

But the numbers tell the story that the Chinese **** the bed on this one when they were denying community spread. Leo's point stands that there is a high chance he could have had this bug.


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## NYCB (Sep 20, 2010)

Deckhead said:


> Bottom line is Leo's point stands. This thing has almost certainly been spreading through the US a lot longer then what they said.
> 
> 41 people had it in November in Wuhan, (that we know of) so probably a month before that even is patient zero. Up to 80% can be asymptomatic. With an R-naught of about 2.5 those people are responsible for about 11,000 infections. One more level of infection brings it to about 11 million.
> 
> ...


It doesn't really line up with current ICU rates over the past month in NYC though.

That city has two international airports and a huge public transit system. They should have been one of the first places to get hit hard. 

It still seems like the west coast was the origin point in the US (or at least the first hit).

I guess we won't really know until they can do some serious genome sequencing later to accurately track when and where it really did kick of in the US.


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## hdavis (Feb 14, 2012)

You can't put together a bunch of maybes and come up with a high probability


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## KAP (Feb 19, 2011)

hdavis said:


> You can't put together a bunch of maybes and come up with a high probability


They do it all the time and it's happening in real time...


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## hdavis (Feb 14, 2012)

KAP said:


> They do it all the time and it's happening in real time...


I blame that on the SETI crew. A little money to look for space aliens cost science a lot, and caused catastrophic AGW.


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## Leo G (May 12, 2005)

KAP said:


> They do it all the time and it's happening in real time...


And look what kind of a chit-show came out of it.


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## KAP (Feb 19, 2011)

Leo G said:


> And look what kind of a chit-show came out of it.


 Yup but they've got the narrative set up so it doesn't matter the actual outcome (no matter how embarrassingly they got it wrong)... "cuz' it coulda' been worse"...


People will have also been invested in that narrative and will continue to defend it...


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## rrk (Apr 22, 2012)

NYCB said:


> It doesn't really line up with current ICU rates over the past month in NYC though.
> 
> That city has two international airports and a huge public transit system. They should have been one of the first places to get hit hard.
> 
> ...


The NYC explosion was from a Europe connection not China


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## KAP (Feb 19, 2011)

Cracks...

*Coronavirus stay-at-home orders stir protests nationwide amid fears of economic collapse... *https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coronavirus-stay-at-home-orders-protests-economy

*“Quarantine is when you restrict movement of sick people. Tyranny is when you restrict the movement of healthy people,” Meshawn Maddock, an organizer of the protest with the Michigan Conservative Coalition, told Fox News. “Every person has learned a harsh lesson about social distancing. We don’t need a nanny state to tell people how to be careful.”

“As someone wrote me, people in [Michigan] know when you lose jobs, they don’t come back,” he tweeted.

As for unemployment, some 16.8 million Americans have lost their jobs in the last three weeks – meaning one in ten working Americans was out of a job. 6.6M new weekly jobless claims mark highest level on record"*​

Good point(s)...


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## Leo G (May 12, 2005)

rrk said:


> The NYC explosion was from a Europe connection not China


That's just a guess.

Hell, as far as wild guesses go I can actually see some nutjob going into crowded spaces and spreading the virus. How easy do you think it would be to go on a couple of subways and touch a bunch of common handled metal surfaces and then do the same on some buses.

In one day I bet one person could infect 10s of thousands of people.

We've seen several videos of people seemingly doing just that. Woman going into a Best Buy and touching all the display computers. A guy on the subway licking his finger and touching a hold pole. A guy in a supermarker spitting on a bunch of oranges. A woman going to the produce section and coughing on about 20' worth of produce.

I mean, who the hell does this type of chit?


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## Rio (Oct 13, 2009)

Leo G said:


> That's just a guess.
> 
> Hell, as far as wild guesses go I can actually see some nutjob going into crowded spaces and spreading the virus. How easy do you think it would be to go on a couple of subways and touch a bunch of common handled metal surfaces and then do the same on some buses.
> 
> ...


When you think about it, if there are people who are willing to blow themselves for a goal of some sort those same sort of people would be willing to be a human 'biobomb', always thought this could be a threat with ebola, infect some volunteers and while it's incubating come on into the country and start secreting the virus.......... yuck.


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

Robie said:


> https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/20...ed-cdc-just-cut-numbers-half-making-go-along/


Sure seems like we are being hoodwinked.


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## Leo G (May 12, 2005)

Oh come on, they were just trying to protect us against our will. That's the duty of the govt to suspend the constitution when necessary to protect the citizenry at all costs.


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## griz (Nov 26, 2009)

Robie said:


> Sure seems like we are being hoodwinked.


if there's politicians involved it's a sure bet we are being hoodwinked...

there is also sand in the lubricant...:laughing::whistling


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

griz said:


> if there's politicians involved it's a sure bet we are being hoodwinked...
> 
> there is also sand in the lubricant...:laughing::whistling


I grew up with another saying...that I shall keep to myself.


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## griz (Nov 26, 2009)

Robie said:


> I grew up with another saying...that I shall keep to myself.


BOHICA is another that comes to mind...:whistling


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## Robie (Feb 25, 2005)

Mine dealt with a woodpile.....


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